Academic Article Analysis

Academic Article Analysis – Phase 1: Literature Review Name: Chiara Luong-Thanh
Article 1: Austvik, O. G., and Rzayeva, G. (2017)

I. General Information

Article citation

Austvik, O. G., & Rzayeva, G. (2017). Turkey in the geopolitics of energy. Energy Policy, 107, 539–547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.008


Core research question

The article examines the conditions under which Turkey can move beyond its role as a natural gas transit country and become a significant regional energy hub. It focuses on how domestic market development, infrastructure constraints, contract renewals, and geopolitical uncertainty shape Turkey’s position in international energy politics.

Hypothesis

The authors argue that Turkey’s ability to become a major transit and trading hub for natural gas depends on three interconnected conditions: domestic political stability, liberalization of the natural gas market, and a relatively manageable geopolitical environment in the surrounding region. They also suggest that, in the short to medium term, market conditions are more likely to support either TurkStream or the Southern Gas Corridor rather than both simultaneously.

II. Methodology and Data Set

Research method

The study uses a qualitative and analytical research design grounded in the concepts of geopolitics, geoeconomics, and geostrategy. Rather than using statistical or econometric modeling, the authors rely on descriptive and comparative analysis to assess Turkey’s market structure, pipeline system, and contractual obligations.

Data set

The analysis is based primarily on secondary sources, including:

· BOTAŞ long-term natural gas contract data

· Energy Market Regulatory Authority forecasts and statistics

· Pipeline capacity data related to TANAP, TurkStream, and the South Caucasus Pipeline

· BP Statistical Review of World Energy

· Turkish government strategy documents, including Vision 2023

· Oxford Institute for Energy Studies reports

Scope and sample

The article covers the period from the early 1990s to 2017. It places particular emphasis on long-term gas contracts scheduled to expire between 2021 and 2026, amounting to approximately 36 billion cubic meters per year. Geographically, the study focuses on Turkey’s role as a link between resource-rich regions such as Russia, the Caspian Basin, and the Middle East and the European market.

III. Findings and Discussion

Key Findings

The article shows that Turkey’s natural gas consumption reached approximately 46 billion cubic meters in 2016, while import dependency exceeded 98 percent. Russia remained the dominant supplier, accounting for around 55 percent of imports, followed by Iran and Azerbaijan. This level of dependency reveals a structural vulnerability that limits Turkey’s capacity to act as a fully autonomous energy hub.

The authors identify TANAP and TurkStream as the central pipeline projects shaping Turkey’s energy strategy. TANAP is presented as particularly relevant for central and eastern parts of the country, while TurkStream is more closely tied to western demand and export routes into Europe.

The study also finds that Turkey’s domestic regulatory environment remains a major obstacle. The dominance of BOTAŞ, combined with the limitations created by the Natural Gas Market Law, has slowed liberalization and restricted competition. Infrastructure bottlenecks and insufficient storage capacity further weaken market flexibility.

Argument support

The evidence presented in the article supports the authors’ main argument that geography alone is not sufficient for Turkey to become an energy hub. Instead, the findings show that institutional arrangements, infrastructure capacity, and geopolitical conditions play equally important roles in determining Turkey’s strategic energy position.

Contribution to literature

This article contributes to the literature by combining foreign policy analysis with energy market structure in a single analytical framework. Its distinction between geopolitics, geoeconomics, and geostrategy offers a useful conceptual model for studying transit states. In addition, its detailed treatment of BOTAŞ, long-term contracts, and pipeline infrastructure adds empirical depth to a field often dominated by broad theoretical claims.

IV. Critical Evaluation

Strengths

One of the article’s major strengths is its conceptual clarity. The distinction between geopolitics, geoeconomics, and geostrategy helps explain how geography, market organization, and political decision-making interact in the Turkish energy context.

A second strength lies in the article’s empirical detail. The discussion of contract volumes, expiry dates, and infrastructure capacity gives the analysis a strong factual basis and makes the argument more concrete.

A further strength is the balanced treatment of Turkey’s external relationships. The authors do not reduce Turkey’s position to a single alliance pattern. Instead, they show how Turkey simultaneously cooperates with Russia for supply security while trying to diversify through Azerbaijan and other potential suppliers.

Weaknesses

The main methodological limitation is the article’s exclusive reliance on qualitative analysis. This weakens its ability to produce convincing forward-looking claims. For example, the argument that only one major pipeline project is likely to be sustainable in the short term would have been more persuasive if supported by quantitative demand forecasting or cost analysis.

A second weakness is the limited comparative perspective in the discussion of liberalization. The article explains Turkey’s regulatory constraints well, but it would have been stronger if it had compared Turkey more directly with European gas market reforms.

The article also gives insufficient attention to domestic political transformation after 2016. Although it mentions the failed coup attempt, it does not fully examine how increased political centralization may affect regulatory governance, investor confidence, and decision-making in the energy sector.

Finally, the role of liquefied natural gas is underdeveloped. Because LNG trade has expanded significantly in recent years, the article’s emphasis on pipelines tends to understate how global gas market flexibility may reduce Turkey’s long-term transit advantage.

Recent geopolitical developments

Since the article was published, several developments have altered the regional context. The Russia-Ukraine war has significantly changed European energy strategy and increased interest in non-Russian gas routes. In addition, the escalation of the Gaza conflict in October 2023 and Turkey’s suspension of trade with Israel in April 2024 have undermined the prospects for Turkish-Israeli energy cooperation.

V. Integration into Final Research Article

This article provides an important theoretical and empirical foundation for the final research paper. Its conceptual framework can be used in the literature review to explain how Turkey’s geographic position interacts with market organization and political strategy.

Its emphasis on contracts, infrastructure, and supply routes is also useful for the methodology section of the final paper. In particular, its approach can be applied to an updated analysis of Turkey’s relations with Azerbaijan, Iran, and possible future Central Asian suppliers.

More broadly, the article offers a strong baseline for comparing pre-2017 expectations with more recent geopolitical and market developments.

References

Austvik, O. G., & Rzayeva, G. (2017). Turkey in the geopolitics of energy. Energy Policy, 107, 539–547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.05.008

Hürriyet Daily News. (2024, April 9). Türkiye suspends all trade with Israel over Gaza war. hurriyetdailynews.com

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