Is Peace Possible Between Ukraine and Russia?

Is Peace Possible Between Ukraine and Russia?

It is February 2026, and four years have passed since the war between Ukraine and Russia began in 2022. I would have preferred to write that Europe’s period under the shadow of war is coming to an end; however, what exists instead is a fragile and feeble negotiation process. There is not even a publicly announced framework for a peace plan. As time passes, the humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical costs created by the war in Ukraine continue to grow. The question now is this: despite the missed opportunities during the Christmas period, is there still a chance for peace—or at least for a permanent cessation of hostilities? Since no proposal has yet been put forward, I will attempt, as a single individual, to present a draft. I am certain that my proposal has many shortcomings, but at the very least I will have outlined a rough framework for a ceasefire agreement.

Since 2022, hundreds of analyses have been written and countless panels have been organized on the Ukraine–Russia war. Yet one striking issue remains: no concrete framework has been presented in response to the question, “What would peace look like?“ Over the past four years, very few have offered a workable proposal. One of those who proposed a ceasefire was the late Henry Kissinger, but he was heavily criticized for doing so. Nevertheless, even if temporary, it may have been a proposal that could have laid the foundations for a realistic framework to end the fighting.

While still alive, Kissinger argued that the war should not end through absolute military victory but through a balance and security architecture that would terminate hostilities. He suggested that certain territorial and status issues could be addressed at the negotiating table. Because of this approach, he was accused by Ukrainian officials and parts of Western public opinion of being “too concessionary/appeasing Russia“ and even of “rewarding Russia.“ However, Kissinger’s main emphasis was that prolonging the war would render European security more fragile and that, ultimately, the parties would return to a negotiating table anyway.

Looking back today in 2026, it becomes clear that this criticized perspective was important at least in one respect: since that time, no one has concretely defined the framework of peace. There has been talk of victory, resistance, continuing the struggle until the other side is completely defeated ( total defeat of the other), and sanctions. Yet no clear roadmap has been put forward regarding how to establish a lasting security order.

However, two fundamental realities must be acknowledged for sustainable peace. First, Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are fundamental principles. From the very beginning, as President Erdoğan stated, Türkiye “did not give up on either Ukraine or Russia.“ Accordingly, while emphasizing Ukraine’s territorial integrity, Turkish officials have consistently maintained that decisions regarding Ukraine’s future belong to the Ukrainian people themselves. Furthermore, the security, independence, and aspiration for European integration of the Ukrainian people cannot be ignored. The destruction caused by the war, the displacement of millions, and the damage inflicted on energy infrastructure have further increased Ukraine’s need for security guarantees.

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