TASAM | ISKP’s Rise: Radicalization, Alliances, and Global Threats

The Rise of ISKP: Analysing Multilingual Radicalization,

Regional Alliances, and Global Threats“

ABSTRACT

The Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) has emerged as a formidable force influencing the geopolitical and security landscape of Afghanistan and the broader South Asian region. The paper hypothesizes that ISKP’s alliances and rivalries with key stakeholders such as Al- Qaeda, the Haqqani Network, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), combined with its sophisticated multilingual online propaganda, significantly enhance its capability to recruit extremists and project influence beyond Afghanistan. This research integrates qualitative analysis of ISKP’s online content, propaganda materials, and multilingual strategies with quantitative assessments of its operational reach. Data collected through open source intelligence (OSINT) and content analysis reveals how ISKP’s online radicalisation extends globally, targeting diaspora populations and vulnerable groups, effectively luring sympathizers to commit acts of violence far beyond Afghanistan’s

borders.

The findings indicate that ISKP’s establishment of branches across various regions is a deliberate strategy to create a transnational network, posing long-term threats to regional stability. The paper suggests that, over the next five years, ISKP’s activities could escalate sectarian violence and destabilize existing political structures in Afghanistan and beyond. The paper concludes that the international community must develop a multi-layered counter terrorism approach to effectively disrupt ISKP’s recruitment networks, counter its multilingual approach, and prevent the global spread of its extremist ideologies.

Enhanced and effective international cooperation, intelligence sharing, and targeted counter-radicalization measures are crucial to mitigating the expanding influence and threat posed by ISKP and other emerging branches of the Islamic State (IS). Only through a coordinated global effort can the spread ofIslamic State and its affiliates’ ideologies and the potential for violence be contained to ensure regional and global security.

Keywords: ISKP, Afghanistan, Terrorism, Radicalization, Multilingual Propaganda.

Introduction

The geopolitical complexities in South Asia did not evolve just through power politics in the international system but furthermore the terrorism that have gained momentum in the region over time. The real shift in the trajectory of extremism in South Asia occurred when the Islamic State (IS) established a branch in Afghanistan called the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). Historically significant to the Islamic world, the Khorasan Province was formed by combining various areas of the modern-day southern Turkmenistan, northeast Iran, and northern Afghanistan. ISKP’s evolution had ripple effects on the socio-political dynamics of Central Asian and South Asian regimes by instilling terror among the masses and the ruling political elites. ISKP envisioned this impact to be beneficial to their operations, recruitment tactics and their manipulative narratives to influence individuals to be a part of their jihadist cause.

The charting of a dual approach, “Radicalise“ and “Recruit“ is the new normal for ISKP which is the most critical aspect of its strategy and its dependance on the cyberspace and usage of advance technology like the Artificial Intelligence. The complications has only been further intensified that challenges the security agencies who must now contend with the escalation of cyberterrorism and take counter measures. Meanwhile, international cooperation remains vital, as the threats posed by ISKP are no longer confined to a single area or region which could have global implications especially now more than ever.

To comprehend the complex characteristics of ISKP, this paper aims to trace ISKP’s rise and evolution; The growing threat it poses have been examined through two key phases: 2015-19 and 2020 onwards. Through this paper, the aim to trace and analyse ISKP’s strategic alliances and rivalries; Its multilingual radicalization tactics and the global implications ISKP presents

through its current form.

Emergence and Evolution: Phases of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP)

The emergence of ISKP as an extension of IS in Afghanistan created a complex situation in the

South and Central Asian regions leading to many instances over time. The ISKP’s operational timeline can be categorized into two phases based on strategies, tactics and radicalisation measures adopted to attain global Caliphate.

Phase I: 2015-2019

The ‘New Kabul Bank’ in Jalalabad, Afghanistan was attacked by a suicide bombing on April 18, 2015. At least 33 people were dead and about 100 were injured among the civilians.1 The news headlines about this attack did not surprise anyone as the pre-conceived notion was that the Taliban must have orchestrated such an attack. But the tables turned when an ex-Taliban spokesman Shahidullah Shahid claimed responsibility for the attack on behalf of the Islamic State. 2 He represented the IS as its spokesman for Afghanistan, as he had pledged his allegiance to IS. It was the first major attack by IS in Afghanistan signaling their extension into the region. Series of attacks took place on the same day in and around Jalalabad and their

primary base, Nangarhar province in Afghanistan.3 The incident marked the beginning of a new regional branch in the form of emergence of ISKP in 2015 to extend deeper into South Asia and Central Asia.

Former leader of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Hafiz Saeed Khan was declared the first Emir or Wali of ISKP along with Abdul Rauf Khadim, an ex-Guantanamo detainee, who was appointed as Khan’s deputy.4 The formation of ISKP took place after Saeed Khan and other disgruntled members of various militant outfits, like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Haqqani Network, and TTP, vowed allegiance to Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, the then Caliph.5 Rauf Khadim was at the forefront to recruit more disgruntled members of the Taliban, by promising them roughly $500, prior to the launching of ISKP.6 An establishment in such a set up with disgruntled members from other groups gave ISKP a robust networking structure to gain more power and support to achieve their goals.

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