TASAM | 6th Marine and Maritime Security Forum I Declaration

6th MARINE AND MARITIME SECURITY FORUM
FINAL DECLARATION

The 6th Marine and Maritime Security Forum, under the main theme of “Turkish Maritime Vision 2053,“ was organized by TASAM National Defense and Security Institute on November 21, 2024, as a co-event of the 10th Istanbul Security Conference held at Wish More Hotel Istanbul.

The Forum, which has been held for the 6th time this year with the aim of examining regional, continental, and global developments in every area concerning maritime and providing academic recommendations that will guide international relations, defense, security, economy, law, and socio-cultural policies, saw wide participation from military personnel to academics, private sector representatives to defense industry officials.

In the Forum, the following topics, which are of vital importance for Türkiye and the Region today and in the future, were addressed:

“Turkish Marine and Maritime Security Vision 2053“, “New Perspectives and Regional Studies in Maritime Geopolitics; Mediterranean, Aegean Sea, Black Sea, Oceans, and Polar Regions“, “Current Threats in Maritime Security and Blue Crimes“, “Development of Turkish Maritime“, “Current Trends in the Use of Turkish Naval Diplomacy“, “Current Concepts and Issues in Building Maritime Capacities“, “New Opportunities in Maritime Geo-Economics and Türkiye“, “Ocean Policies“, “Environmental Security in Maritime Studies“, “New Threats in the Age of Digitalization in Global Maritime“, “Utilization of Seas in Disaster Management and Maritime Bridge Strategies“, “Maritime Geoculture“, “Energy Potential of Seas and Its Sustainable Use“.

It was decided that the findings and recommendations listed below, which were produced within the scope of the Forum, be presented to the attention of the relevant authorities and the public to contribute to the construction of today and the future:

The main targets included in the 1937 Government Program were recalled for inspiration, and the objectives on the path to becoming a maritime state were reiterated as follows: Becoming a maritime state should be a national goal, a maritime vision should be determined and declared, maritime awareness should be fostered in society, a merchant fleet capable of meeting national requirements and securing a sufficient share in global maritime trade should be established, technology to access seabed and underwater resources should be developed, a strong naval force should be established.
Countries that prioritize maritime research, namely maritime states, will reach the resources in the seas more quickly. In this context, the struggle for sharing maritime areas such as the Black Sea and polar regions, which are not yet sufficiently known but are potentially promising, will come to the fore. The owners of these areas and the countries with advanced technology will either inevitably agree or clash. Thus, 500 years later, the age of terrestrial colonialism will give way to an age of maritime colonialism.
Resources are in the depths, and the maritime environment offers nothing to those who neglect science and technology. In the new millennium, countries will no longer neighbor each other based on land borders but based on continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) boundaries, forming alliances or unions accordingly. For Türkiye, the primary future maritime research issue is expected to arise in the regions around Cyprus. Seas, which will be the living spaces of the next millennium, will inevitably witness long-term and high-level competition and struggle in every field, especially in food and energy.
Energy supply is entirely dependent on the seas, both in terms of resources and transportation. Over the last 60 years, energy pipelines built by countries have come to the fore. Tens of thousands of kilometers of energy pipelines cross countries and continents, resembling human blood vessels. Circulation is provided mainly through three hearts: Siberia, the Caspian, and the Middle East. With the help of maritime research technologies and global warming, two new hearts are forming in the Arctic region and the Eastern Mediterranean basin. The direction of circulation in these new hearts is still unclear and may lead to radical geopolitical developments in their regions. At the beginning of the 21st century, it is evident that the path to dominating the world has shifted from land to seas. Mackinder's Heartland in Central Asia is gradually losing its importance.
Energy security cannot be fully achieved without stability and a new political order in the Middle East, as more than 60% of the world's oil reserves are still located in this region. Why has the Middle East been the most unstable region in the world for nearly a century? And why does the end of this instability seem almost impossible? It cannot be said that the current routes for transporting energy resources from the Middle East and Central Asia to the West and East are completely secure.
The energy transmission lines passing through Türkiye do not strengthen Türkiye geopolitically; on the contrary, they make it more vulnerable. In this regard, Türkiye's national endurance in the event of a potential crisis or war will be directly proportional to the security of terminal ports in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea and the sea routes leading to these ports. In this context, having a strong naval force and coastal defense emerges as a vital geostrategic necessity for Türkiye. It is expected that the primary future maritime research issue for Türkiye will occur in the regions around Cyprus. Regardless of whether the energy resources in the region are transferred to the West via Türkiye or the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCASC), maritime regional security cannot be ensured without Türkiye. In this context, it is a geostrategic necessity for Türkiye to have a strong naval force both for its national interests and to meet the needs of the international community. Another important actor for regional security will be Israel. These calculations and projects should also include the rich resources in the Nile Delta and, consequently, Egypt.
It is inevitable that pipeline systems stretching thousands of kilometers and built with tens of billions of dollars will become unusable under certain conditions. Thus, the artificial energy lines, which can be considered the arteries of world geography and economy constructed over the 25 years following the Cold War, will also disappear. At that point, a return to transporting oil by ships from energy terminals will be inevitable. In such a case, countries with superiority in naval power will have a greater advantage.
Türkiye determined its maritime boundaries through agreements with the Soviet Union in 1980 and Bulgaria in 1997. The political situation in Syria has prevented addressing the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas, which has been on the agenda since the 1970s. The same situation applies to Greece. The Eastern Mediterranean will gain even more prominence in the energy and security equation of the future. In this context, it is considered that an agreement environment could be easily achieved due to the new political situation emerging in Syria. The issue should be urgently addressed without allowing intervention by the US and Israel. It should be noted that even a one-degree deviation in maritime boundaries can affect maritime areas over kilometers.
In light of the first seven articles, Türkiye has achieved significant successes in maritime affairs and maritime security in recent years. Maritime awareness has significantly developed in Türkiye, and it has begun to transform into a state that effectively manages its seas through good use of technology. Türkiye is navigating a good course in maritime affairs, standing out with its navy and strong shipbuilding industry.
The importance of adopting a collective perspective was also emphasized, highlighting the philosophical approach to maritime studies. Fundamentally, the nature and significance of water were underscored. According to Thales' philosophy, the essence and component of everything is water, and everything originates from water. In this respect, Anatolia stands out for its deep-rooted appreciation of water. The intellectual life surrounding water in Anatolia is very robust. Furthermore, the Mediterranean holds a critical importance as the foundation of this philosophy.
The importance of protecting the seas was emphasized, highlighting the danger of their exploitation. Approaching the seas as a valuable asset and preserving them with this perspective is crucial. The seas should not be reduced to a secularized and devalued state by removing their metaphysical context. Seas, as one of the primary sources of life, provide more than half of the oxygen inhaled by all living beings, originating from the oceans.
Additionally, the security of states begins with the seas. A state that dominates the seas can protect its land. This fact, observed in history, remains valid to this day.
The Mediterranean is one of the most prominent seas in the context of security. Every country in the world has a stake in the Mediterranean, and in the event of a possible war, the Mediterranean would be one of the primary reasons. The Aegean and Mediterranean, which constitute Türkiye's jurisdictional waters, are among the world's most important waterways due to their ports and natural resources. Recent pursuits in energy transfer are ineffective without Türkiye. Leading many international operations, Türkiye has played significant roles in maritime security. With the concept of the Blue Homeland, maritime jurisdiction areas have been declared, and the capability to protect these areas has increased proportionally with the defense industry.
The National Defense movement, which began with the establishment of military factories in 1921 and continued with the establishment of ASELSAN after the Cyprus Peace Operation, is progressing intensively. The defense industry has reached a capacity capable of meeting the needs of the homeland and friendly countries to a significant extent. The process that began in maritime with the MILGEM Project is continuing at full speed. At this point, the focus is not on shipbuilding but on the technology produced and implemented. In the current situation, Türkiye's success is creating added value worldwide.
As seen in evacuation examples in Lebanon, Türkiye, along with its navy, has acquired soft power capabilities. The art of defense is not only an economic but also a strategic and political power factor. The instability that began in the region after the Arab Spring today constitutes the main issues of conflict. Another point to be addressed is that energy reserves in the seas and the trade routes to be protected are key points of maritime security on the path to full independence.**
70-80% of global trade volume circulates over the seas. It has been emphasized that while the 19th and 20th centuries were a struggle for oil and natural gas, the 21st century will witness conflicts over precious metals. This competition has also been highlighted as one of the references for the 2053 vision.
Recognizing and defining new threats is of great importance. These threats include artificial intelligence, digitalization, geopolitical fault lines, piracy, maritime terrorism, human and arms trafficking, and irregular migration. In such cases, keeping the seas secure is the best option to attract investments. Otherwise, regions that lose stabilization cannot develop economically. There are no longer single-actor state-to-state struggles. Today, companies play a very significant role. Therefore, Türkiye should start collaborating with other actors and manage the transition to a corporate-state working model effectively.
The United States has declared that it will no longer ensure maritime security on the international stage. This power vacuum risks being filled by terrorist and illegal organizations. International cooperation has been suggested as the only way to prevent this.
The evaluation scale of decision-makers is valuable in terms of maritime engagement. States that evaluate international relations in the light of conspiracy theories lag behind in maritime engagement. A state's relationship with the seas is somewhat related to historical victories and defeats. For example, the French-British rivalry in the Mediterranean ended with the Battle of Trafalgar, leading France to leave the seas to the British. Similarly, the Ottoman-Spanish conflict can be cited as an example. Additionally, instilling maritime consciousness in societies is important. For instance, except for Halikarnas Balıkçısı, there is a noticeable lack and gap in this field in Turkish literature.
It is a challenging process for nations without a maritime heritage to develop naval power. For instance, China is attempting to change its national character as a land-based country in the face of the U.S. Or Sweden, with its Viking culture, England in terms of trade, or Portugal, which embraced exploration routes, can be cited as examples of nations with such heritage. In the Ottoman Empire, it can be said that the seas were mostly used as buffer zones and adopted as walls.
The increasing digitalization in the maritime industry has also brought about a rise in cybercrimes, differing from traditional maritime security threats. Malicious groups, crime networks, hackers, terrorists, and even state/non-state actors are increasingly targeting ship navigation systems through cyber-attacks, using unmanned maritime vehicles (UMVs) for attacks on trade/warships, as well as critical underwater infrastructure like pipelines and fiber optic submarine cables. UMVs are also being used for narcotics smuggling, becoming a preferred method. For instance, during the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukraine targeted Russian Black Sea Fleet vessels, and Houthis attacked commercial ships passing through the Red Sea, exemplifying such attacks in this area. Therefore, 21st-century maritime security threats have acquired new dimensions.
Unmanned Maritime Vehicles (UMVs) are intensively used in drug trafficking. Their primary advantage is that they do not carry individuals who could incriminate criminals if intercepted. Unmanned underwater vehicles can cause significant damage to underwater cables, pipelines, and energy infrastructure. Consequently, maritime security is no longer solely a military issue.
The Blue Homeland is a comprehensive strategy that protects Türkiye's interests at sea. This initiative is crucial for Türkiye's access to energy resources. The Blue Homeland Doctrine represents Türkiye's military and political strength within its continental shelf. Türkiye's maritime jurisdiction areas include the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Black Seas. The Black Sea maritime borders were established through agreements with Bulgaria and the Soviet Union in the 1980s. In the Aegean region, Greece's attempts to extend its territorial waters to 12 miles create instability. In the Mediterranean, the agreement with Libya strengthens Türkiye's position.
Ensuring maritime security is not just a military precaution but also an economic shield. Energy and hydrocarbon discoveries enhance Türkiye's energy independence. Additionally, the Blue Homeland is valuable for the sustainability of maritime and fishing practices. Due to its comprehensive importance, education and awareness activities to support the concept of the Blue Homeland should be increased.
The tourism sector is gaining momentum thanks to investments in ports and infrastructure. With the Blue Homeland, global energy and trade corridors cannot be realized in scenarios excluding Türkiye, and Türkiye's interests are guaranteed at the first opportunity.
Disaster security requires intense cooperation. In this regard, the example of Greece is highlighted. In the event of a disaster, Greece’s first request for assistance would be directed towards Türkiye. Similarly, Türkiye would first look to Greece for assistance.
The boundary between the Aegean, Eurasian, and African plates is located just south of Crete, which corresponds to a region with high seismic risk. The Aegean region is home to many active fault lines. The processes of sea expansion and recession, particularly concerning certain ports, create significant risks, especially along Türkiye’s western coastline. A risk associated with geothermal resources is the negative impact on surface vegetation in certain areas, as these resources are very close to the surface, sometimes even destroying the vegetation.
Urban flooding is one of the biggest issues in modern cities. If water is not properly drained, this issue becomes problematic and, if left unresolved, negatively impacts urban life. Meteorological factors cannot be ignored either. Hurricanes and storms, which are a consequence of climate change, present major disaster threats. Wildfires, on the other hand, particularly affect the western and southern parts of Türkiye.
Ecological destruction worldwide is a highly risky issue. This problem, which significantly affects the seas, could potentially lead to the death of the seas. While the seas can continue to exist, it should not be forgotten that without seas, both humans and other life forms cannot survive. The reduction of fish populations in the seas has increased aquaculture, and combined with the excessive use of GMOs, this has led to many health problems. Of every three fish we eat, only one is from the sea. By 2050, there will be more trash in the seas than fish. Many factors contribute to this marine terrorism, including international cruise ships. The importance of ecology is defended by many scientists due to the desire to pass on the seas to future generations. The depletion of fish reserves in international waters is the result of a marine genocide. This genocide leaves us with new dietary habits. Marine products are very beneficial to health. Losing these dietary habits is dangerous. Avoiding marine products means drifting away from maritime awareness.
Developed nations are those that use marine resources. When underdeveloped nations start doing this, they encounter the concept of blue economy. Utilizing the seas without depleting them. The blue economy is a very broad concept. It encompasses cultural dimensions like fishing, marine tourism, marine transportation, and shipbuilding, as well as more modern aspects like marine mining and marine energy resources.
The boundaries of the blue economy are not fully defined. However, humanity must understand and implement the requirements of the blue economy. Otherwise, the end of humanity may not be far off. The blue economy is inevitable for the future of the world, as the current global situation demands that we use resources without further harming nature. The establishment of a climate change monitoring center in Türkiye is a very valuable step. It is hoped that more initiatives will be taken in this regard. Changes to be made within the scope of the blue economy should be urgently implemented with Türkiye's interests in mind. Green economy is also a related concept to blue economy. However, national strategies are needed to increase both symmetrical and asymmetrical gains between the two concepts and sectors.
The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea was adopted in 1982. It is a very important document for the protection of biodiversity. The Bucharest Convention hosts three protocols aimed at protecting the Black Sea from pollution, and although Türkiye is part of it, the legal binding is not strict. However, it is not actively implemented. The United Nations Environment Programme plays an important role in the adoption of many international conventions.
"The 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) accepts the principle that marine scientific research (MSR) should be carried out exclusively for peaceful purposes. However, the definition of peaceful purposes is not provided. Every state has the right to conduct scientific research on the sea surface. This right does not require being a party to UNCLOS. Scientific research whose implementation and goals are peaceful is considered peaceful. But does this principle include military-related scientific research? There is no clear answer to this question. In practice, the results of purely scientific research may be used in the military field, or vice versa. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that individual marine-related research should be conducted in compliance with UNCLOS requirements. Any threatening attitude involving the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of a state is not acceptable. Even if the coastal state permits, it will not be recognized internationally."