Geopolitical Problems of NATO Members in the Arctic

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With the acceptance of climate change as a security threat, more than one security risk may emerge in the same region. The Arctic is one of the geographical areas where the effects of climate change are most tangible and the security environment is gradually decreasing. Security concerns in the Arctic have resulted in NATO expanding its territory to the Russian border. While Russia perceives this situation as insecurity, it also means the end of NATO’s Northern expansion. ...

Geopolitics is a fundamental theory used in many academic disciplines, including International Relations. It traditionally examines the importance of physical space over the role of nation-states. Geopolitics focuses on strategic control over territorial spaces and the authority held by states. In the context of this concept, the Arctic has all the features of geography, economy, technology, power and science, and geopolitics.

Geopolitics is primarily concerned with the spatialisation of international states. In this way, the complex above- and below-ground physical structure of the region can be explained in terms of international relations. Thanks to geopolitics, new global problems such as environmental degradation and climate change have become more understandable. Furthermore, geopolitics has provided valuable insights into the spatial dimensions of international relations, while the traditional emphasis on power politics has helped to unravel the complexities inherent in contemporary global issues.

A new geopolitical era is beginning in the world geography: Arctic ice blanket. We are talking about a geographical area where countries rich in economy and technology are closest to each other. While some researchers The thick ice layer of the Arctic region caused this region to be seen as uninhabitable. However, the region became more valuable as access to the glaciers became easier thanks to developing technology. We cannot explain this only with technology. Climate change is also important in the effectiveness of technology. As a result of glacial melting in the region, thick ice sheets can be easily overcome with new icebreakers. As seen in map 1, even the ice thickness in the most inaccessible parts of the Arctic region has decreased to 3.5 metres. A study by Blidberg, Corell and Westneat (1980) revealed that the highest ice depth in the Arctic Ocean is 50-55 ft (15-17 metres).

As a result of changing geopolitics, disputes in the Arctic region have diversified. These include border disputes, fishing boundaries, oil, gas and mineral resources in the region. As the Arctic ice melts, new shipping routes open up, facilitating the extraction of natural resources (Ekaterina, 2019). Moreover, this change reduces the need for the Suez and Panama canals as transport and trade routes and creates a safe alternative route. In particular, regional conflicts in the Red Sea have brought the Arctic to the the tension in the region is noticeably increasing. Glaciers, seen as an obstacle to transportation and underwater exploration before technological developments, are not a problem today.
The thick ice layer of the Arctic region caused this region to be seen as uninhabitable. However, the region became more valuable as access to the glaciers became easier thanks to developing technology. We cannot explain this only with technology. Climate change is also important in the effectiveness of technology. As a result of glacial melting in the region, thick ice sheets can be easily overcome with new icebreakers. As seen in map 1, even the ice thickness in the most inaccessible parts of the Arctic region has decreased to 3.5 metres. A study by Blidberg, Corell and Westneat (1980) revealed that the highest ice depth in the Arctic Ocean is 50-55 ft (15-17 metres).

As a result of changing geopolitics, disputes in the Arctic region have diversified. These include border disputes, fishing boundaries, oil, gas and mineral resources in the region. As the Arctic ice melts, new shipping routes open up, facilitating the extraction of natural resources (Ekaterina, 2019). Moreover, this change reduces the need for the Suez and Panama canals as transport and trade routes and creates a safe alternative route. In particular, regional conflicts in the Red Sea have brought the Arctic to the forefront as an important alternative. Another important issue is the impact of climate change on indigenous peoples in the Arctic (Weber, 2020). Rising sea levels as a result of melting glaciers threaten the livelihoods and habitats of the people living in the region.

When considered geographically, the Arctic region can be grouped in different forms: wider or narrower. Firstly, there are the main countries that form the basis of the Arctic region, known as the Arctic Five. These are; Canada, the United States of America, Norway, Denmark and Russia. Secondly, there are the eight Arctic states located on the North Pole line (with three states added to this group by the 1996 Ottawa Declaration). In addition to the Arctic Five, these are Iceland, Finland and Sweden. Thirdly, there are countries that do not have borders with Arctic states and have observer status (Weber, 2020). These countries are France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the People's Republic of China, Poland, India, South Korea, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Among these countries, China is the country that makes its presence felt and invests the most in the region (Schönfeldt, 2017).

The reasons mentioned above lead to various consequences. Among these consequences, security has a multifaceted perspective. Increasing geopolitical activity in the region causes countries to change and develop their security policies. Russia's annexation of Crimea and the war in Ukraine have increased geopolitical unrest in the region. The confrontation of Russia, which has the longest border to the Arctic region, with the West has increased the risks in the region. As a precaution against these risks, both the military deployments to the Polish border and the NATO membership of Finland and Sweden are the two most important outcomes in the Arctic. NATO enlargement is also a critical process for the Arctic region (Schönfeldt, 2017).

The global value of the Arctic region is increasing and relations between countries are becoming different. Yes, there is also a security movement against Russia in the region, but on the other hand, the increasing geopolitical value of the Arctic region is increasing competition among all be Disputes over Exhaustion Areas: Disputes over rights and boundaries over extraction areas of submarine resources (e.g., oil, natural gas) may increase among coastal states in the Arctic region. This could include countries such as Norway, Russia, Canada, the US (United States) and Denmark (via Greenland). Another example of the safety of Sea Routes is the melting of glaciers in the Arctic Ocean, which has led northern sea routes to become more accessible. This could lead to an increase in ship traffic and disagreements among NATO members over the security and management of these passages. Another example is the increase in Military Presence and Regional Balances: The increase in military presence in the Arctic region may affect regional security balances. The fact that some NATO members become regional bases and increase their military presence may cause concern for other countries in the long term. Such problems could disrupt cooperation and balance among member states in NATO's Arctic region. Examining the problems these countries experience among themselves may shed light on potential problems that may arise in the future.

Arctic geopolitics is characterised by close relations between the environment and security. The globalisation of the Arctic and the balance of power are important in an environment where common interests support stability. As long as the common interests and cooperation of the countries continue, it is unlikely that minor disputes will escalate into war. However, we cannot ignore some problems. The globalisation of the Arctic points to a period in which the Arctic region plays an important role in world politics and international relations and changes in geopolitical paradigms are taking place. In order to better understand this period, we need to better analyse the relations between countries.

This article will analyse the increasing geopolitical risks in the Arctic region from the perspective of NATO expansion. Can cooperation between NATO countries and Russia prevent a possible war? The question will be answered by examining the geopolitical problems in the Arctic. This research aims to provide a different perspective by exploring not only the geopolitical problems with Russia but also the geopolitical problems of NATO member countries with each other.

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