“THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR ISSUE AND REGIONAL SECURITY: DILEMMAS, RESPONSES AND THE FUTURE ”
Huang, Xiaoning (2016)
“IRAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT AND U.S. EXIT ”
Kerr, Paul K. - Thomas, Clayton (2016)
ANALYSIS OF ARTICLES
Neriman Naz TAŞKIRAN
ÖZET
2006 yılından beri devam eden E5 ülkeleri, Tahran ve ABD’yi kapsayan İran’ın Nükleer Programı hakkında oluşturulan Ortak Kapsamlı Eylem Planı( JCPOA) ile sona varılmaya çalışılmıştır. ABD’de yapılan genel seçimler sonrası başka değişikliği ile birlikte Trump Yönetimi başa gelmiş ve anlaşmadan çekilmiştir. Nükleer Program’ın etkisinin en fazla hissedildiği bölge Körfez olmuştur. Buradaki dominasyonu fazla olan dört ana ülke İran, İsrail, Suudi Arabistan’ın bu program hakkında kendi ülkeleri ve hegemonlarını korumak için bazı eylemler yapıldığı görülmektedir. Bu analiz İran’ın Nükleer Programının komşu devletleri nasıl etkilediğini, yapılan anlaşmaları ve Ortak Kapsamlı Eylem Planı’nı derinlemesine inceliyor.
Anahtar Kelimeler: İran, Nükleer Program, JCPOA, ABD, Körfez Ülkeleri
ABSTRACT
Since 2006, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) has been established to address Iran's nuclear program, involving the E5 countries, Tehran, and the United States. Following the general elections in the US, a major shift occurred with the Trump administration coming to power, leading to the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement. The region most impacted by the nuclear program has been the Gulf, where four main countries such as Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and others—have taken measures to protect their own interests and hegemonies. This analysis delves deeply into how Iran's nuclear program has affected neighboring states, the agreements made, and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action itself.
Keywords: Iran, US, Israel, Nuclear Program, Gulf States, JCPOA
1. INTRODUCTION
2. TRANSITION ERA AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF PLANS
3. NUCLEAR FACILITIES OF IRAN
4. THE BIG FOUR
5.THE FUTURE OF REGION IN CASE OF SECURITY
6. CONCLUSION AND REVIEW
7. REFERENCES
1. INTRODUCTION
The agenda of Iran is mostly based on Islamic Revolution and Nuclear Energy issues. Geo-political location can be seen as the root of discomfort by the West. The Persian Gulf which still has a big importance to the United Nations in case of nuclear energy and security. 1 This security analysis aimed at the relationship of Iran and other sides with the contribution of the UN on security and nuclear energy implications on the region. The author discussed the case with four significant actors namely Iran, the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. 2 This research examines the consequences of Iran's nuclear energy program to the region, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the role of the UN in the implementation.
2. TRANSITION ERA AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF PLANS
The support coming from the West turned into a threat after the change of government regime. Nuclear Program was not a drastic threat to the Western countries before the Iranian Islamic Revolution which occured in the 1979. 3 The revolution did not entirely change the regime of Iran, nor the life styles, society and all perceptions of society. Mohammed Reza Pahlavi had a close relationship with the US. This closeness was the reason for the western oriented support not only from the US but also France, Germany and the UK. Iran was a close ally named as a safeguard state to Soviet influence and the security of the region. 4
British withdrawal on the region created a power vacuum and the solution was the twin-pillar policy which was implemented by the former President Nixon by the Nixon Doctrine. The claim was the building of two guard states in the region, Iran and Saudi Arabia for the power balance in the region.
The nuclear program started with the initiative of President Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace speech. 5 The aim was the creation of balance on nuclear energy and civilian-peaceful purposes of usage. Mostly the assistance of the US, France and Germany enrichment of the uranium and constructing facilities prioritized with this program. The Twenty Years Vision Program planned to generate 20,000MW(e) until 1994. 6
Despite all the efforts Iranian society was not ready for the westernization phenomena. With the leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, radical islamics started an uprising that ended with a revolution that caused a regime change in fundamentally.
The revolution was the turning point of ally relations to enemy categorization. The US and France withdrew their assistance and even Germany withdrew the Busher Plant uncompleted. 7 The program reactivated by the Iran-Iraq War started in 1980. After the death of Khomeini, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani came into power and recalled all the scientists who were brain drain with foreign countries to develop Iran in the case of nuclear energy. Iran lost all the alliances in the west and east was the only option to sustain developments on nuclear energy. Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan were included in the list. However eastern powers could not assist in the way Iran wanted. The Us pressure firstly in China to cancel important projects and then after delay on the construction of Russia.
With the Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT), The International Atomic Energy(IAEA) always checked and assisted for nuclear energy power on Iran even after the revolution in case of creating concern. The changing point was the declaration of two secret facilities: the Natanz facility and the Arak heavy water facility which was announced by the National Council of Resistance of Iran. 8 After the foundation of secret facilities, the UN Security Council imposed a resolution which included total cooperation, suspension of enrichment research and implementation of Additional Protocol. 9 The distrumped relations had been worse with lacking information and secret facilities. Iran always claimed that use of nuclear power for peaceful and civilian purposes was not for nuclear weapons. The IAEA stated that Iran has the right to produce nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in order for the NPT. In case of limited uranium enrichment and transparency of the process, Iran would continue to research. 10
The enhancement of relations started with the Tehran Declaration in 2003 and Paris Agreement in 2004. 11 European powers understood that the only way to enhance relations and escape nuclear threats was through diplomacy. First two declarations failed because of the rejection of the US. Former President Ahmadinejad declared that Iran had joined the nuclear energy creator states with the low degree of uranium enrichment. The UN Security Council adopted a resolution to oppose that statement include suspended all developments and facilities in Iran.
The Western countries who were P5+1, tried to solve the nuclear power issue with sanctions and economic incentives. Sanctions were the oil embargo and exclusion of Iran in the international trade sphere. 12 Economic sanctions are seen as the final weapon before disaster.
The US stated that Iran had capacity to develop nuclear weapons such as warhead design and delivery systems. 13 Highly advanced weapons created from enriched uranium and platinum. The nuclear capacity actually shows the deterrence policy of Iran. Iran could use nuclear power when the time comes. 14 The US intelligence said that Iran could have the capacity to produce nuclear power but it needs time in order to be better. They also added that if Iran accelerated the research, the US would be aware of the secret facilities and enrichment process in 2015 by Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. 15
Finally Iran and P5+1 reached a conclusion which was the formation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA) in 2015 called Finalization Day. 16 The limitation of development and international monitoring accepted by the lift of sanctions that came with the nuclear power program. 17 The UNSC resolution 2231 was implemented during the adoption era. 18 October 2015 was the day of Adaptation when the JCPOA entered the force with the approval of the UNSC. 16 January 2016 called Implementation Day which was when the IAEA stated a report that Iran will implement the plan. 18 UNSC implemented so many resolutions but the most important operator was resolution 2231. Transition Day was found eight years after the Adoption Day. The sanctions need to be suspended on Implementation Day which were specified by additional Iran entities. 19 UNSCR Termination Day is ten years from the Adoption Day which means that the Security Councils would not interfere with Iran’s nuclear power. 20
After all that effort, the sanctions that were implemented by the nuclear program were lifted.
There were some sanctions by the western states but mostly the US. After the Implementation Day these sanctions were easing with the JCPOA. Access to hard currency, oil exports capped and resumption of trade in selected sectors were the easements that came with the deal. 21
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