7.1.INTRODUCTION
The 21st century can be considered as the revolutionary age of technology. We have seen some major advancements in the field of technology in the last decade and it is still going on at a rapid pace. The technology which is new today will become obsolete tomorrow as the speed of development with new concepts and techniques are born every day. Emerging and disruptive technologies encompasses both new technology, and new use of existing technology, that will change the way we or potential adversaries operate. This includes ‘game-changing’ technology that revolutionizes the field, but which could come with risks attached because it is new and untested. In this rising tide of revolutionary technology, the two most popular concepts which have gained the most attraction are AI (Artificial Intelligence) and Biotechnology including Human Enhancement.
AI has allowed us to eliminate the factor of human errors from any kind of work. It has led to a huge increase in the demand for artificial intelligence in various fields. How AI is implemented in defense systems? AI is increasingly becoming an integral part of the defense and modern warfare systems. Compared with conventional systems, military systems equipped with AI are capable of handling larger volumes of data more efficiently. Additionally, AI improves self-control, self- regulation, and self-actuation of combat systems due to its inherent computing and decision-making capabilities1. It’s convergence with other related technologies, especially the Internet of Things (IoT) and Robotics, has tremendous applications in defense sectors. AI is deployed in almost every military application, and increased research and development funding from military research agencies to develop new and advanced applications of artificial intelligence is projected to drive the increased adoption of AI-driven systems in the military sector.
The Biotechnology (BT) and Human Enhancement domains have been subdivided into areas: virtual reality, exoskleteons, and neuro-enhancement for the Human Enhancement, and bioinformatics and biosensors, biomedical technology and medical countermeasures, and synthetic biology for the Biotechnology. The pipeline of biotechnology products likely to emerge over the next decade probably will result in disruptive innovations and significant societal impacts, even though currently it seems to be underestimated in its exploitation in military applications with the respect, as a main example, to soldier resilience and survivability. Biotechnology will provide a new source to accelerate the development of weapons and equipment. For instance, the application of high-performance bionics and biomaterials could provide a new material basis for weapons and equipment, Human Enhancement Technologies (HETs) are biomedical interventions that are used to improve human form or to function beyond what is necessary to restore or sustain health. HET may enhance physiological, cognitive or social functions.
AI has allowed us to eliminate the factor of human errors from any kind of work. It has led to a huge increase in the demand for artificial intelligence in various fields. How AI is implemented in defense systems? AI is increasingly becoming an integral part of the defense and modern warfare systems. Compared with conventional systems, military systems equipped with AI are capable of handling larger volumes of data more efficiently. Additionally, AI improves self-control, self- regulation, and self-actuation of combat systems due to its inherent computing and decision-making capabilities1. It’s convergence with other related technologies, especially the Internet of Things (IoT) and Robotics, has tremendous applications in defense sectors. AI is deployed in almost every military application, and increased research and development funding from military research agencies to develop new and advanced applications of artificial intelligence is projected to drive the increased adoption of AI-driven systems in the military sector.
The Biotechnology (BT) and Human Enhancement domains have been subdivided into areas: virtual reality, exoskleteons, and neuro-enhancement for the Human Enhancement, and bioinformatics and biosensors, biomedical technology and medical countermeasures, and synthetic biology for the Biotechnology. The pipeline of biotechnology products likely to emerge over the next decade probably will result in disruptive innovations and significant societal impacts, even though currently it seems to be underestimated in its exploitation in military applications with the respect, as a main example, to soldier resilience and survivability. Biotechnology will provide a new source to accelerate the development of weapons and equipment. For instance, the application of high-performance bionics and biomaterials could provide a new material basis for weapons and equipment, Human Enhancement Technologies (HETs) are biomedical interventions that are used to improve human form or to function beyond what is necessary to restore or sustain health. HET may enhance physiological, cognitive or social functions.
The world may be on the verge of a significant change in the character of war, or it may not. As is always the case preceding such transformations, there is a great deal of uncertainty about when they will occur and how military forces will need to adapt to remain competitive in the new environment. As the nations approach the dramatic changes that military AI/BT-HET might cause, the national leaders will be confronted with tensions between competing demands: the imperative to prepare her forces to fight and prevail against adversaries with these capabilities versus the need to manage the strategic risks and potential costs of arms races. How successful the nation is in maintaining military superiority in an increasingly dangerous world, will depend on how smartly the national leaders manage these tensions. In this chapter, we will investigate the possible applications of AI/BT-HET into defense systems and generic concepts to refer to their implications.
7.1.1.Emerging Technologies
The following definitions have been agreed in the context of NATO documents2:
Emerging: Those technologies or scientific discoveries that are expected to reach maturity in the period 2020-2040; and are not widely in use currently or whose effects on Alliance defense, security and enterprise functions are not entirely clear.
Disruptive: Those technologies or scientific discoveries that are expected to have a major, or perhaps revolutionary, effect on NATO defense, security or enterprise functions in the period 2020-2040.
Convergent: A combination of technologies that are combined in a novel manner to create a disruptive effect.
Currently, the following seven emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are determined the development maturity of the EDTs, by NATO, and evaluate their potential impact on the military and, if feasible, wider3:
Emerging: Those technologies or scientific discoveries that are expected to reach maturity in the period 2020-2040; and are not widely in use currently or whose effects on Alliance defense, security and enterprise functions are not entirely clear.
Disruptive: Those technologies or scientific discoveries that are expected to have a major, or perhaps revolutionary, effect on NATO defense, security or enterprise functions in the period 2020-2040.
Convergent: A combination of technologies that are combined in a novel manner to create a disruptive effect.
Currently, the following seven emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) are determined the development maturity of the EDTs, by NATO, and evaluate their potential impact on the military and, if feasible, wider3:
- Data and Big Data Analytics
- Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning
- Autonomy
- Space
- Hypersonic Vehicles and Missile Defense Technologies
- Quantum Technologies
- Biotechnologies and Human Enhancement
EDTs could range from those that are expensive and challenging to develop - for example hypersonic - to those that are cheap and easily accessible but used in novel ways - for example non- state actors using drone technology in ways which could challenge norms of behavior - to those that disrupt the fundamental operating understanding of our conventional approaches, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and sensing.
AI, Big Data, Machine Learning
AI and big data are complementary technologies that are closely linked. As information is a key contribution to big data analytics and AI, data integrity and data quality are fundamental elements in any solution deployed in the military domain or in the civilian sector and must be preserved during all stages of data use (from creation to data exchange, sharing and archiving). For NATO and its allies, a coordinated approach is required for the development and use of AI and big data, based upon open, publicly available and international standards. Unlike the past, where data services were piggy-backed onto topical projects, these fields now need to become integrated into quality projects in order to achieve common, interoperable platforms which seamlessly connect the existing islands.
Autonomy
Autonomy is a domain which, in the Western World, has benefited from major investments, both civil and military. Examples from the civil sector are drones, autonomous cars and autonomous manufacturing. Within the defence domain, examples of autonomous technology have been in service for many years. Some key issues that require further development in the autonomy domain are man-machine teaming and the degree of human control required, this latter point influenced by ethical, moral, legal and safety considerations. The impact and inclusion of emerging technologies, especially AI and big data, require a high level of trust to be built up with respect to how these autonomous system(s) operate and adapt to their environment.
Space
For the Alliance, the dependence on space is currently not matched by the resilience of space assets. On-orbit assets face a particular problem because of Anti-Satellite (ASAT) and space piracy threats and a greater number of defensive and Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) options are needed as a counter. To deal with the space threats, NATO must build up its space expertise and enhance its Space Surveillance and Tracking and Space Domain Awareness capabilities. A particular concern which demands understanding and keen analytical skills being that the exigencies of the Domain can result in effects that mimic attacks by an adversary.
Spectrum and 5G/6G
New generations of cellular telecommunications technology offer economic growth which is being promoted by governments and commercial companies alike. Growth is forecast to come from the large increases in data throughput capacity that 5G (and later generations of the technology) will provide. Applications (known in the parlance as ‘use-cases’) using Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, Autonomy and Robotics, and eCommerce will exploit the benefits of high throughput and low latency. The combination of these new bearer technologies and use cases is an illustration of how converging technologies can have a disruptive effect.
There is intense competition for spectrum, particularly in some of the lower frequency bands. The military must learn to build robust business cases to protect services from interference. Perhaps of even more importance than resilience, is assurance and any service providers must be trusted. However, a key step towards being able to address the aforementioned challenges is to recognize spectrum operations as a new operating domain, in much the same way as Cyber and Space.
There is intense competition for spectrum, particularly in some of the lower frequency bands. The military must learn to build robust business cases to protect services from interference. Perhaps of even more importance than resilience, is assurance and any service providers must be trusted. However, a key step towards being able to address the aforementioned challenges is to recognize spectrum operations as a new operating domain, in much the same way as Cyber and Space.
Hypersonic Platforms and New BMD Technology
To counter the threat from hypersonic platforms, that could be travelling at speeds of up to Mach 20, NATO and its allies need to address a number of issues:
Firstly, to examine and coordinate the numerous hypersonic platform and technology developments that are taking place within NATO nations, to produce a coherent Alliance strategy that could provide a timely won capability.
To utilize model, simulation and test flight data to explore the threat flight profile boundaries to enable forward-prediction of engagement zones, use of counterforce, and identify where modification to today’s effector capabilities could yield capability.
The use of hypersonic and cruise missiles require that defence planning becomes global in nature and coordinated across the Alliance. The increase in battlefield volume requires an equivalent growth in exploitation and fusion of all available sources of intelligence and data.
To utilize model, simulation and test flight data to explore the threat flight profile boundaries to enable forward-prediction of engagement zones, use of counterforce, and identify where modification to today’s effector capabilities could yield capability.
The use of hypersonic and cruise missiles require that defence planning becomes global in nature and coordinated across the Alliance. The increase in battlefield volume requires an equivalent growth in exploitation and fusion of all available sources of intelligence and data.
Quantum Technologies
Globally, this domain is driven by very large public investments, including both in the US and China. Other relevant drivers include: the hype over Quantum Computing (QC) and its potential threat to cryptography which fostered quantum communications, intrinsically secure by the laws of physics and able to detect any eavesdropping attempt.
Computing is the only area in which large companies, such as Google, IBM, Intel, Alibaba, etc., are represented, which is due to the large investments required in this area and to the large, expected impact in the ‘Big Data’ sector computing. On the other hand, both in sensing and communication domains work is mainly centered in academia, research organizations and in small and medium size enterprises (SMEs).
There is an ongoing convergence of four key technologies that are poised to transform the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) ecosystem. Those technologies are Fifth Generation (5G) cellular, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Data Analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Artificial intelligence represents the use of machines, or computers, to simulate activities thought to require human intelligence. There are different AI methods used by researchers, companies, and governments, including machine learning and neural networks4.
Computing is the only area in which large companies, such as Google, IBM, Intel, Alibaba, etc., are represented, which is due to the large investments required in this area and to the large, expected impact in the ‘Big Data’ sector computing. On the other hand, both in sensing and communication domains work is mainly centered in academia, research organizations and in small and medium size enterprises (SMEs).
There is an ongoing convergence of four key technologies that are poised to transform the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) ecosystem. Those technologies are Fifth Generation (5G) cellular, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Data Analytics, and the Internet of Things (IoT). Artificial intelligence represents the use of machines, or computers, to simulate activities thought to require human intelligence. There are different AI methods used by researchers, companies, and governments, including machine learning and neural networks4.
Bio Technologies and Human Enhancement
Biotechnology has become an increasingly agile platform for developing new types of soldier enhancements. As such, the field offers novel opportunities for improving warfighter survivability on the battlefield. The "dual use" natures of the life sciences and biotechnology, in which the same science and technology base that improves health, promotes innovation, and protects the environment, can also be misused to facilitate a biological attack.
The development of new human augmentation technologies has the potential to change the capabilities of the individual soldier, sailor or aviator significantly and create integrated human- machine symbiotes of unparalleled capabilities. Furthermore, rapid advances in material, computer and human sciences, as well as convergence between these fields, is setting the stage to enhance human capabilities and push the human performance frontiers significantly.
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The development of new human augmentation technologies has the potential to change the capabilities of the individual soldier, sailor or aviator significantly and create integrated human- machine symbiotes of unparalleled capabilities. Furthermore, rapid advances in material, computer and human sciences, as well as convergence between these fields, is setting the stage to enhance human capabilities and push the human performance frontiers significantly.
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