No matter how much the dynamism of the Syrian Civil War that started in 2011 has diminished, its economic, political and social effects for Turkey are still not removed, and in particular, it brings with it various risks that are increasing day by day. In addition, with the Taliban taking control of Afghanistan in 2020, the Iran-backed migration wave threatens Turkey's demographic structure. For this reason, the migration wave, which is one of the important consequences of today's wars, causes the conflicts taking place around Turkey to cling to Turkey as a migration centre. For this reason, the impact of the possible consequences of the Iran-Israel conflict on the region is undeniably great. Israel's recent military activities in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon can be seen as an effort to unilaterally change the existing balance in the region. These actions violate long-standing tacit agreements aimed at limiting conflicts between Israel and Iranian-backed groups. Israel has been quite successful in preventing Iran from establishing missile bases in Syria and strengthening Hezbollah's positions in Syria. Following the assassination of a senior IRGC Quds Force general at an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on 1 April, Tehran decided to reassess its relations with Israel. The most striking aspect of Iran's new approach is its readiness to attack Israel directly from its territory. This could lead to an increase in tensions in the region and a further spread of possible conflicts. The destruction that will occur during and even after these conflicts may lead to the emergence of migration flows from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran towards Turkey, and these migration flows will certainly have shocking effects not only for Turkey but also for Europe.
As I said at the beginning, Turkey has not been able to put forward a regular policy against an irregular migration intake in the period after 2011, and it will not be possible to determine the borders of the migration flow in the conflict between Iran and Israel, whose borders are not clear. In addition, the only threat in the context of migration flows is not only the economic and democratic problems that refugees will create, but also the far-right and anarchist movements that may rise within the society will undoubtedly create difficult cases for Turkey and Europe. The main reason for considering Turkey and Europe as a whole here is the EU-Turkey deal signed between Turkey and Europe in 2015 to protect the social structure of European states. According to this agreement, the migration of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan would be kept on Turkish territory and Turkey would be seen as a buffer state between the refugees and the EU. However, although Turkey requested a buffer zone up to 30 kilometres from its borders in order to prevent migration in Syria, this request did not find support. As a further risk factor, it cannot be ruled out that radical terrorist organisation militants could be among the refugees that would flood into Turkey. It could also pose a threat to Turkish security institutions and to the presence of military bases in major cities such as Adana, Malatya and Izmir in the framework of the NATO mission. Finally, Turkey's initial cautious approach to the clashes that started on 7 October was followed by a mostly rational approach to the human tragedy unfolding in Gaza, apart from political rhetoric. The EU and the US need to rein in Israel and the Islamic world needs to rein in Iran. The fuelling of regional conflict by Iranian proxies, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, increases the risk of regional conflict.While regional conflict dynamics should be read according to regional dynamics, their reflections on global politics should be evaluated in this context. When global interest dynamics are acted upon, the situation may cause regional ruptures. While lessons were expected to be learnt between the two wars, it affected the whole world, especially the western world, during the cold war period. The Israel-Iran conflict has the capacity to change the course of the competition in global politics. Turkish Foreign Policy, as a mid-level state, is obliged to maintain its status quo approach after World War I. It is also necessary for the great powers to peacefully stop conflicts in crisis regions on the basis of co-operation.
As I said at the beginning, Turkey has not been able to put forward a regular policy against an irregular migration intake in the period after 2011, and it will not be possible to determine the borders of the migration flow in the conflict between Iran and Israel, whose borders are not clear. In addition, the only threat in the context of migration flows is not only the economic and democratic problems that refugees will create, but also the far-right and anarchist movements that may rise within the society will undoubtedly create difficult cases for Turkey and Europe. The main reason for considering Turkey and Europe as a whole here is the EU-Turkey deal signed between Turkey and Europe in 2015 to protect the social structure of European states. According to this agreement, the migration of refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan would be kept on Turkish territory and Turkey would be seen as a buffer state between the refugees and the EU. However, although Turkey requested a buffer zone up to 30 kilometres from its borders in order to prevent migration in Syria, this request did not find support. As a further risk factor, it cannot be ruled out that radical terrorist organisation militants could be among the refugees that would flood into Turkey. It could also pose a threat to Turkish security institutions and to the presence of military bases in major cities such as Adana, Malatya and Izmir in the framework of the NATO mission. Finally, Turkey's initial cautious approach to the clashes that started on 7 October was followed by a mostly rational approach to the human tragedy unfolding in Gaza, apart from political rhetoric. The EU and the US need to rein in Israel and the Islamic world needs to rein in Iran. The fuelling of regional conflict by Iranian proxies, especially Hamas and Hezbollah, increases the risk of regional conflict.While regional conflict dynamics should be read according to regional dynamics, their reflections on global politics should be evaluated in this context. When global interest dynamics are acted upon, the situation may cause regional ruptures. While lessons were expected to be learnt between the two wars, it affected the whole world, especially the western world, during the cold war period. The Israel-Iran conflict has the capacity to change the course of the competition in global politics. Turkish Foreign Policy, as a mid-level state, is obliged to maintain its status quo approach after World War I. It is also necessary for the great powers to peacefully stop conflicts in crisis regions on the basis of co-operation.
