TASAM | 9TH İSTANBUL SECURITY CONFERENCE

Istanbul Security Conference, which took place for the first time in Türkiye in 2015, was held for the ninth time this year under the main theme “Strategic Transformation in the Ecosystem: Climate, Nourishment, Demography, Meritocracy, Economy, Health, Education, Employment, Family-Youth and City Security“, by TASAM’s National Defence and Security Institute on 23-24 November, 2023 in Istanbul Kent University Kağıthane Campus. A large number of speakers, from various disciplines, and delegates from different countries and regions have participated in the 9^th event of the Istanbul Security Conference, which has become a regional and global brand. All relevant authorities from Türkiye have also been present at the conference, sessions were followed institutionally.

On November 23^rd, The 2^nd Istanbul Cyber-Security Forum with theme of “New Cyber Economy and Turkish Products" and The 5^th Marine and Maritime Security Forum with theme of “Marine Geoeconomics of the 21^st Century, and Türkiye"; and on November 24^th, The 6^th Türkiye - Africa Defence Security and Aerospace Forum with theme of “Turkish Military Presence and New Horizons in Africa" and The 7^th Türkiye - Gulf Defence and Security Forum with theme of “New Discoveries in the Turkish - Arab Security Ecosystem“ were held together as co-events at the Conference with simultaneous translation. The 9^th Istanbul Security Conference, which brings together distinguished participants from almost 40 countries including USA, China, Russia, Iran etc. provides a global platform for an in-depth exchange of views, driven by Türkiye-based new perspectives with a competitive edge.

The takeaway points and recommendations offered in the conference, which is intended to focus on informing the public as well as all relevant authorities, are as follows:

A - GENERAL

The content, vision, proactivity and depth of the first eight Conferences’ declarations published under various names, were confirmed. The importance of institutionalizing the Istanbul Security Conference as a "School" that builds capacity and network on a global scale without worrying about popularity was appreciated.
It has been emphasized that there is a climate of vital conflict between those who accumulate production power and financial power, in which the main separation in the global world is shaped as "Competition for Accumulation and Concentration of Resources.".
In the current climate that can be categorized and classified as "Theology, Science, Metaphysics, and the Beyond Era," it is expressed that a period has been entered where the conventional facts of science, replacing religion, are rapidly changing, and definitions are becoming meaningless. It is emphasized that there is a need for a doctrine and strong representations of the Red Apple that will support a Common Values and Ethics Revolution for Humanity on a global and regional scale.
It is confirmed that the decentralized center-focused global governance encourages competition and conflict in soft areas, emphasizing the vital importance of focusing on issues such as "Mind and Generational Health, Technology Management, Climate, Food, Demography, Meritocracy, Economy, Health, Education, Employment, Family-Youth, and Urban Security.".
Insistent emphasis has been placed on the vital risks inherent in the future of the nation-state within the transforming international system focused on the parameters of "Micro Nationalism, Integration, and Unpredictability.".
It is stated that outside the globally defined governance of the "Decentralized Center," the primary actors in the dimension of "Competitive World Peaces" are identified as "Pax Britannica, Pax Americana, Pax Sinica, Arab Century, and Turkish Century." In this multifaceted and boundless competition, the concept of "Success in Failure" is emphasized as one of the most crucial phenomena.
The need for "Strategic Transformation" at every scale to be effective in the future and in global competition has been insistently emphasized. Accordingly, the importance of developing models and doctrines with a focus on new pursuits/fields such as Chaos Mathematics, Reverse Mathematics, Mathematics of Emotions, Neuro Special Abilities has been expressed, emphasizing the importance of acquiring a "Cyclical Security Infrastructure and New Skills" aligned with Meritocracy.

B - THEMES
The world is changing with the resurgence of intense strategic competition and growing geopolitical crises. New threats continually emerge, and old threats resurface steadily through new technological integrations. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine serves as a reminder of how hybrid strategies include high-intensity conflicts within their spectrums, not excluding them but rather incorporating them as extreme and integrated elements of irregular and blurred competition continuity.
We are living in a new era characterized by new trends, new technologies, and new realities. The significance of national and secure digital transformation is paramount. The importance of data in opening up new threat landscapes cannot be overstated, making it essential for large countries and corporations to make significant investments in artificial intelligence. The ultimate goal is to possess personal data and ensure the proper protection of data. Otherwise, digital transformation can evolve into a national problem. The establishment of data protection forces, akin to land, sea, and air forces, has also been suggested.
The green and digital transformation is crucial as a strategic choice. The Industry 4.0 revolution is rapidly unfolding at an unprecedented pace, impacting the developmental trajectory of nations. From an operational perspective, digital transformation is intertwined with factors such as the emergence of new values, efficient utilization of the workforce, fostering progress, and increasing well-being services. The goal is to become a digitally advanced nation. Facilitating this development in terms of business models, education, employment, and governance is essential, emphasizing the centrality of people and jobs. Ensuring digital transformation is also vital for combating cybercrimes. Countries should share experiences, engage in transparent, equitable, and universally beneficial information exchange. Such collaboration is necessary for socio-economic development, network security, and addressing cybercrimes.
It is suggested that the United States and Turkey collaborate in a more comprehensive manner, integrating energy and ecological security issues, including environmental degradation, climate change, and human health. Within the framework of this collaboration, it is expressed that peace, stability, and prosperity can be achieved in the region through a policy led by the United States and Turkey. It is emphasized that a new security architecture can be established, laying the foundations for both ecology and energy security. Taking a human security perspective on broader energy and ecological security issues is highlighted to positively impact the strategic dynamics of Europe, the United States, the Middle East, and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Throughout history, the Eurasian continent has been a favorable area for the emergence of power centers due to its rich resources. As a result of the continuous competition among the powers within this continent, for the first time in history, a power center has emerged outside of Eurasia. However, as a geopolitical necessity, a power center outside Eurasia can only sustain its existence if it can compete with, weaken, or align some power elements within Eurasia in its favor. More than 60% of the world's GDP and 75% of known energy resources are located in this region. Out of approximately 8 billion people in the world, only 1 billion reside in the Americas. Therefore, a power dominant in Eurasia would control two of the world's most productive economic regions, overseeing a young population and abundant resources.
The question of the extent to which the United States' strategies to remain a power center will continue in the next stage and whether they will be successful or not continues to be debated. The U.S.-published Indo-Pacific Strategy Document clearly indicates the effort of the United States to complete the shift in focus to the Indo-Pacific region after the Mediterranean, through the establishment of a new center of gravity, and with the help of allies it will find or create in the Indo-Pacific region, addressing the geopolitical shift in the Eurasian region.
A strategic transformation has begun in the human ecosystem, and the concept of freedom inherent in human nature has changed. A new world based on surveillance is emerging. The individual shaped by elements such as land, state, borders, flag, and laws in traditional life is now being compelled towards a transformation under the singular goal of one world, one state, and one currency. Moreover, under the paradoxical transformation process known as the "Great Reset," a new evolution or a progression towards revolution through conditional conditioning is taking place.
Panopticon is a prison model designed by the British philosopher and social theorist Jeremy Bentham in 1785. Derived from the words "Pan" and "opticon," the term Panopticon means "to observe all." This concept is a part of an unnoticed vital foresight that exists in almost every aspect of our lives. The digital age is merging humanity, which has dominated nature in the production of civilization for thousands of years, through digitization towards becoming a singular type without the need for a single state, single order, and metaphor.
Population and manufacturing industry are rapidly growing, leading to increased needs. However, resource supply is a significant issue. Energy sources such as oil, coal, and natural gas are being used intensively. This development brings along certain constraints. For instance, the limited quantity of water in Turkey and worldwide is noteworthy. In Turkey, 84% of the water is used for agriculture and food production.
Climate change is increasingly turning into a climate crisis. There is a significant increase in regularly collected waste, and a large portion of this waste ends up in landfills. However, recycling is not increasing at the same rate as the consumption speed. Only one-third of what is produced can be consumed. Although theoretically there are enough resources on Earth, if this pace continues due to overconsumption, we will need the equivalent of seven Earths. Consequently, consumption should match the actual needs, measures should be taken for climate change, sustainable production models should be adopted, and a balance should be maintained between production and consumption.
Social inequality and poverty are on the rise, impacting sustainability negatively. It is critical for society to be able to utilize its own resources while considering the future in order to ensure sustainability. Post-World War II, sustainability has been approached from a global perspective. In this context, creating sustainable human settlements is of great importance. Sustainability conferences play a significant role in achieving this goal. According to research, while the urban population was 1 billion in 1959, it is projected to exceed 6.5 billion in 2050. When evaluating living conditions in cities, emphasis should be placed on the ability of urban individuals to cope with sudden adverse situations. In the last two decades, creating resilient cities has become a global trend, encompassing poverty, social equality, and disaster strategies. The governance mechanisms of resilient cities involve collaboration between the public, private sector, and the third sector, and they are transparent. Moreover, there is a high level of community awareness regarding risks and hazards. Particularly, coping strategies of urban residents should be identified.
One frequently overlooked yet significant issue that occasionally comes to the forefront is the concentration of economic, technological, industrial, and human resources in a particular region, leading to serious vulnerabilities in terms of human, urban, and military security. Such concentration can expose a region to risks in terms of defense and security. In this context, policies may be implemented to encourage the migration of retirees and the unemployed who do not contribute to the production of goods and services in the city. Additionally, greater sensitivity should be shown to undeveloped areas, with particular emphasis on regions susceptible to seismic activity. This implies a planning approach that is not driven by rent-seeking but is rather responsive to urban risks.
Environmental activists and armed forces have long been considered separate groups, but the recognition of the climate crisis as a security issue has brought different parties together, leading to the development of a comprehensive climate action plan. In this context, NATO's formal recognition of climate change as a threat in 2010 is a significant step. Climate crisis mitigation plans were initiated under the Green Defense framework in 2013, and in the 2014 summit held in Wales, it was decided to establish a multinational NATO Response Force to respond to disasters. In 2015, NATO, through Decision 427, explicitly acknowledged that global warming is anthropogenic and emphasized the threats it poses to international security, ranging from global migration to conflicts based on water and food security. This decision compelled NATO to make serious commitments to decarbonization and the transition to green energy. Lastly, at the NATO Leaders Summit in Vilnius in the summer of 2023, plans were made to establish the NATO Climate Change and Security Center of Excellence in Montreal, Canada. It is expected that this center will enable NATO to play a more effective role in environmental security.
Green transformation policies should be supported in this process. Policies such as shifting towards sustainable energy sources, preventing deforestation, and promoting climate-friendly practices are crucial steps to mitigate the impact of fires. As Turkey, being a driving force for change within NATO is an important responsibility to increase resilience at regional and global levels. With the increase in average temperatures, the incidence of fires and the areas affected by them are also on the rise. Fires have become a global issue, with an area as extensive as India burning every year. Particularly in the Mediterranean, forest fires have reached a critical level. In this context, civil society and decision-makers should take additional measures in disaster management and preparedness stages.
The understanding of economic security has undergone significant changes following the 9/11 attacks and the 2008 global financial crisis, and it has been further reshaped with the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic, which manifested globally in 2020 and rapidly spread, brought individuals' and states' health concerns into an economic dimension. Prolonged lockdowns during the pandemic led to substantial changes in the economic perspectives of individuals and businesses. Technological tools became more widely used in economic transactions during this period. The cryptocurrency market, gaining effectiveness during the pandemic, has been defined by some sectors as a new currency and a medium of exchange. The proliferation of the cryptocurrency market has accelerated financial transactions. However, despite the positive effects of digitization in global financial markets, the inability of governments to control and tax the cryptocurrency market, along with the lack of widely accepted legal infrastructure for cryptocurrencies, has increased the economic security concerns of countries and societies. The possibility of the widespread use of the cryptocurrency market for money laundering and terrorist financing, especially between 2020 and 2023, has prompted governments to take economic security measures.
Historical crises and disruptions throughout the course of history have changed and transformed the definition of economic security. Economic risks emerging during this process have at times hindered the attainment of economic security and posed threats to a stable economic structure during specific periods. A nation's national and international security interests against internal and external threats are examined in two distinct categories economically. Economic interests varying at the levels of public, regional, societal, and individual contribute to the formulation and implementation of a nation's economic security policies. To mitigate the impact of economic risks and threats arising from both internal and external sources, many states have designed and implemented reform, development, and crisis management packages. While formulating and implementing these policies, states have continued to rely on certain parameters that pose risks to economic security and threaten elements of economic security. Among these parameters are "corruption, political stability, internal security vulnerabilities, media, globalization of capital, covert operations, and global shocks.".
One of the challenges faced by analysts of social change today is determining the heralds of the fundamental elements and conditions that may give rise to the upcoming "new world." In the process of the formation of this new world, it is particularly important to understand the impacts of technological advancements, especially in the form of the digital revolution, at the highest level of analytical abstraction.
The main challenge for many developing countries in being able to compete in the industrial sector is widely associated with a recognized skills deficiency. This situation particularly exacerbates the issue of youth unemployment. Effectively addressing the skills deficiency problem is crucial for enhancing economic security and political stability. Encouraging youth employment and improving education standards emerge as one of the most significant barriers to economic development and technological progress; this becomes even more pronounced, especially in post-conflict societies. At the core of this issue lies a mismatch between the skills supported by education systems and those demanded by the labor market.
Establishing a network of "innovation centers" that collectively provide resources, collaborate, and test solutions against the world's most significant human challenges is of great importance. These innovation centers, equipped with advanced manufacturing equipment (such as 3D printers, CNC routers, precision milling machines, laser cutters), will provide physical platforms for interactive arts facilitating STEM education, workforce development, entrepreneurship education, co-working spaces, knowledge sharing, social integration, and psychosocial support. Additionally, the field of data analytics can play a significant role by transforming the potential of the digital realm to the advantage of all affected sectors. The digital domain can contribute to the resolution of conflicts of interest by addressing on-the-ground needs with lasting and inclusive solutions. The business sector can be incentivized to develop such solutions. International institutions moving away from traditional funding models can assist in designing the sustainability of digital interventions.
The process of change in the energy order that began after the 1973 Global Oil Crisis posed a new threat, especially for European countries, as the 2000s unfolded. The primary threat associated with this change is the increasing demand for natural gas, which emerged as an alternative to oil. The initially sensible shift towards natural gas has inevitably turned into an energy security threat for continental countries. In this context, the most significant threat that emerged from the early 2000s is often linked to Russia, and the events of those years serve as indicators. However, the new situation arising from the armed conflicts between Russia and Ukraine suggests that the EU and other continental countries may face even more serious challenges. The increase in import dependency and the lack of necessary measures for energy transformation can be considered under two main headings when evaluating these threats. The cross-border energy crisis associated with the armed conflicts between Moscow and Kiev confirms that a more vital and irreversible period is unfolding for the EU in terms of energy security.
In recent years, the emerging energy crisis, expected to persist in the future, will have lasting effects throughout history. This process differs significantly from other crises and manifests itself in events both before and after the crisis. Particularly, the recent energy crisis clearly demonstrates its distinctiveness from others, as despite long-term preparations, the adverse impacts could not be prevented. Furthermore, the factors escalating the crisis and the efforts to find solutions should be evaluated in this context.
The energy crisis has evolved into a transboundary issue, transforming into a global energy security threat. While negatively impacting many regions worldwide, it particularly affects the EU and other continental countries. Among the factors contributing to the significant impact of the energy crisis on the EU, an excessive dependency on crucial sources such as Russian energy stands out. The intense demand for these imported energy sources in Europe poses serious challenges to ensuring energy security. This situation strains the EU's efforts to secure energy reliability and deepens the effects of the crisis. While the EU's pursuit of solutions to energy security issues involves important steps, it also introduces uncertainties and contradictions. Specifically, the shift towards LNG to diversify natural gas supplies, seemingly reducing dependence on Russian natural gas, simultaneously increases reliance on the United States. Additionally, observations indicate that environmental values are not adequately prioritized in initiatives related to fossil energy sources. This highlights a crucial context for the EU's energy policies to evolve towards a more balanced perspective concerning sustainability and environmental impacts.
The initiatives of the EU towards fossil energy sources during the energy crisis process seem likely to transform into emerging energy security issues in the new era. Similarly, renewable energy applications may share this situation. Especially in a period where dependence on suppliers of renewable technology raw materials is increasing worldwide, the monopolistic position of countries like China has become a significant concern for energy security. In this context, it can be said that a new period has begun for the EU's energy security, accompanied by emerging threats in the context of the energy crisis.
When considering climate change in terms of human security and hard security, human security encompasses fundamental elements such as food, water, health, development, migration, poverty, and energy. Decreasing agricultural production has led to issues such as food insecurity and inflation. Food and water insecurity can lay the groundwork for political instability. Health security is an area where climate change can give rise to new diseases and the impact of extreme weather events on health. Migration can deeply affect the economy and social interactions. In terms of hard security, climate change can lead to state collapse and societal fragmentation. Food, water, and environmental insecurity can result in political instability, terrorism, and internal conflicts. This situation calls for a reinterpreted civil and military collaboration. Climate change is a serious security issue that requires a multilateral and comprehensive approach.
In recent years, the migration movement to other countries for higher education purposes has shown a significant increase worldwide. In 2020, there were more than 235 million students enrolled in higher education institutions globally, which is more than twice the figures from the year 2000 (UNESCO, 2022). Although the concept of internationalization has been influenced by various factors, economic reasons have been the primary driving force behind this process. On a global scale, the number of internationally enrolled students in higher education institutions was around 800,000 in the 1970s; however, by the early 2000s, this number had reached two million. The number of international students tripled between 2000 and 2020, reaching six million. This convergence of the desire of students to experience different cultures and education systems with economic developments has led to a global boom in student mobility. The international student mobility worldwide has created an impressive economic market of 300 billion dollars. The UK recently announced that the contribution of overseas students to the country's economy is 41.9 billion pounds. The contribution to the U.S. economy in this field is approximately 27 billion dollars. The rapidly changing geopolitical situation has increased the potential risks for institutions excessively dependent on any market for international recruitment.
In recent years, Turkey has focused not only on the industrial and agricultural sectors but also on service exports to maintain the dynamism of its economy and strengthen its position in the global competitive environment. Turkey's tourism revenue has surpassed 60 billion dollars, driven by around 50 million foreign tourists and profitable sub-sectors, especially medical tourism. According to data from DEİK and other business organizations, the turnover of health tourism reached the level of 10 billion dollars in 2022. Additionally, the contribution of foreign students enrolled in higher education institutions in Turkey, which can be considered a type of service export, to the economy is a significant fact. Considering that any foreign student contributes approximately 50,000 dollars to the host country's economy worldwide, it can be stated that Turkey's income from international students in 2023 is around 1 billion dollars. While there were approximately 18,000 international students in Turkish universities in 1999, this number increased to 54,000 in 2013, and this upward trend has multiplied by six, reaching 300,000 students in the academic year 2022-2023. Despite this significant increase in the number of international students, the need to enhance the international competitiveness and responsibility of the higher education system continues, as stated in Turkey's 11th Development Plan. Turkey has declared its intention to become a more effective player worldwide by setting the goal of increasing its share in the education services market. Over the last 25 years, Turkey's higher education system has undergone significant changes, with both the number of universities and the number of students increasing. According to data for the academic year 2022-2023, there are a total of 6,950,142 students and 184,566 academic staff in 208 higher education institutions in Turkey. Out of these institutions, 129 are state universities, 75 are private universities, and 4 are private vocational schools. There are 2,647,054 students in two-year vocational schools, 3,754,095 students in undergraduate programs, 434,485 students in master's programs, and 114,508 students in doctoral programs. Across Turkey, these 208 institutions offer approximately 60,000 programs.
International student mobility has significant dimensions that need to be considered from the perspective of national and international security. The possibility that long-term students may have connections with foreign intelligence organizations and that these individuals may engage in destructive activities should be considered. For example, stakeholders in Turkey's higher education system are not sufficiently prepared institutionally, personally, and socially in the face of the rapid increase in the foreign student population. Rectors, deans, academic and administrative staff, students, and private security personnel should be more prepared in this regard. Looking at the numbers of foreign students studying in Turkey for the 2022-2023 academic year, Syria leads with 58,213 students, followed by Azerbaijan with 34,247, Iran with 22,632 in third place, Turkmenistan with 18,250 in fourth, and Iraq with 16,172 in fifth place. Iraq is followed by Somalia with 10,043 students, Egypt with 9,597, Afghanistan with 9,203, and Kazakhstan with 8,864. Considering that students from around 180 countries come to Turkey, the importance of academic studies on these students, who belong to very different countries, belief systems, and cultural groups and live in our country for an extended period, increases.
In a period where global power relations and the world order have undergone profound changes, and breaking free from globalization has become a trend leading to a "New Cold War," non-traditional security concepts are increasingly coming to the forefront. Education is related to the future of a nation. Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping explicitly stated at the 20th National Congress that: "What kind of people should we cultivate, how, and for whom; these are the fundamental issues that education should address." This situation also leads to the introduction of the concept of education security. For example, China and Turkey, two significant powers in the multipolar world, play important roles regionally and globally. In terms of education, both countries have been deeply influenced by the West throughout their histories. Since 1924, China and Turkey have brought in numerous foreign experts (mostly from the U.S.) to modernize education, and both countries' education and assessment systems have been influenced by the U.S. and Europe. The modernization of education continues to be a significant topic, but modernization should not be equated simply with Westernization. Education security is a matter concerning the future of a nation, and the concept of "education security" should be defined and explained in terms of "what kind of people to cultivate," "how to cultivate," and "for whom to cultivate".
In the current geopolitical context, activities falling within the scope of educational diplomacy are conducted in coordination with the states' policies and are considered in terms of national security. It is observed that states conduct educational diplomacy activities both domestically and in the context of foreign policies due to security concerns related to the field of education. In this regard, in recent years, educational activities designed not only for the long term but also for the short and medium term have gained attention. In conclusion, it can be stated that educational diplomacy provides significant gains for states in terms of education security in the short, medium, and long term.
In many countries, efforts related to Smart Cities and Urban Security emphasize the use of technological tools. However, events such as natural disasters, terrorism, armed attacks, or conflicts are often neglected. In the event of a system failure during such incidents, alternative methods are not sufficiently addressed. Typically, only traditional criminal activities are considered, and solutions are presented for these issues. Urban security in the face of natural disasters, terrorism, armed attacks, or conflicts should be given more attention in these studies. For preparedness for such events, National Comprehensive Defense should be modeled according to cities. Comprehensive defense for urban security should present a model where the urban population (civilian population) is ready to protect or defend itself during events such as natural disasters, terrorism, armed attacks, or conflicts, facilitating effective crisis management. This model will support critical functions of the public sector during these events, including the efforts of local government, energy supply, health, logistics, sustainability of urban security capacity, economy and infrastructure, psychological resilience, and more.
According to the 2022 estimates of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, there are over 100 million irregular migrants worldwide, predominantly living in urban areas. Cities provide irregular migrants with anonymity, job opportunities, alternative means of livelihood, diverse accommodation options, and access to ethnic, social, or cultural networks. Therefore, irregular migration can be understood as an urban phenomenon. From a national-state perspective, the term "irregular migrant" refers to an individual who enters or resides in a country without the required permission or documents under migration regulations. The term "illegal immigrant" points to individuals stigmatized with criminality and wrongdoing. Since being present without permission is not a crime but an administrative violation in most countries, this definition is often not used. Many city administrations worldwide implement policies to support migrants. These urban policies and practices challenge the policies of national states on citizenship and migration by using normative concepts such as urban citizenship, residence, and hospitality. At this point, discussing the challenging living conditions of irregular migrants and the complex urban governance of migration becomes crucial.
Irregular migration, the concept of urban citizenship, and urban security have been discussed together in the field of sociology in recent times. Irregular migrants are individuals who migrate through illegal means due to compelling reasons such as war, economic hardships, or natural disasters. Every city has a capacity in terms of water, electricity, food, and employment. Migrants may conflict with the residents of the city where they settle. Urban citizenship involves residents of a city having social and political rights. Irregular migrants also benefit from this right. Possible measures to address the issue of irregular migration include combating human trafficking, ensuring border security, and enhancing the functionality of repatriation centers.
Meritocracy is a system in which individuals are evaluated and rewarded based on their talent, education, and success, ensuring that everyone is in the right place. When examining the impacts of this approach on the overall security and stability of countries, challenges faced by meritocracy in the context of security include the risks of information leakage, discrimination, polarization, elitism, alienation, uniformity, and barriers to innovation, as well as personnel shortages in critical positions and internal security threats. Simultaneously, the opportunities offered by meritocracy include effective security management, increased societal trust, strategic planning and implementation, professionalism, societal legitimacy, innovation and adaptability, a broad talent pool, internal security and loyalty, foresight and anticipation, and geographical location.