TASAM | How will United States-Russia Balance of Power Challenges Im...

Prof. Dr. Mesut CAŞIN

Faculty of Law Yeditepe University, İstanbul, Turkey.

mesutcasin@hotmail.com

“We are all the losers if we move into a new Cold War, new arms race. So, we must try our utmost to find that balance between being firm, predictable, delivering credible attempts of defence, but at the same time trying to develop a better relationship with Russia including arms control and political dialogue with Russia.“

NATO Secretary General

INTRODUCTION

NATO alliance is the strongest military security organization of our day. On the other hand, the competition on the power balance between Russia and USA reflects on NATO and European security, impacting Euro-Atlantic security negatively. This new arms race is escalating the threat parameter through nuclear armaments and ballistic missiles. While Russia is exploiting the differences between the NATO and USA which arose during the Trump administration, it is also allying with China in order to set up a counter in the Baltic-Black Sea-Mediterranean axis. On the other hand, Turkey setting out to obtain S-400 missiles from Russia and stepping up with the energy cooperation has been criticized by the NATO and USA. The arms aid as provided by USA to PYD and PKK in Syria is increasing, with the U.S. Senate’s suspension of the delivery of the F-35 missiles and further application economic sanctions are causing major fractions.

In 1991, just after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the first good news was the fall of the Berlin Wall, which caused tectonic shifts in the European security architecture in the ideological conflict between Western capitalism and Soviet communism. Thus, NATO enlarged the areas in which it operated on, which had been previously designated by the Warsaw Pact, even when Yeltsin had suggested that Russia might someday become a NATO member.

The second news was bad news: such dramatic changes caused the NATO-Russia relations to fell into a state of deep in crisis since 2008 Georgia War. The 2014 Ukraine Crisis, the ongoing deployment of Russian military force in Syrian Civil War and the allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential vote further exacerbated the relations. Kremlin’s annexationof Crimea especially led to a hybrid warfare with “Little Green Men’’, with the US deploying ballistic missile defence shields in NATO territory thwarting hope for a new “reset“ policy initiative in US-Russian relations.

In this article, we shall try to answer some sophisticated key questions which cannot be easily and definitely answered: How can NATO and Russiarebuild a new and constructive relationship in light of recent developments? Can U.S. and Russia look for and find new ways to reestablish ties? Why do these two superpowers need to prevent engaging in a dangerous arms race through testing strategic interests such as nuclear disarmament treaties in order to resolve policy differences? Can Turkey improve and normalize relations while keeping up with U.S. sanctions but also keep on cooperating with Russia?

How will NATO and U.S. respond if Turkey operates S-400 missiles?

Link to the related book > Security of the Future