The Russian Federation's National Security Strategy of 2021: THE INCREASING IMPORTANCE OF INTERNAL SECURITY

Dr. Ahmet SAPMAZ*

Özet

Ulusal güvenlik stratejileri devletlerin politikalarına yön veren stratejik seviyede ana belgeler olmaları nedeniyle önem taşımaktadır. Rusya Federasyonu (RF) ile Batı ve özellikle Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) arasında 2014 yılında Moskova tarafından Kırım’ın ilhakı ile ilgili yaşanan siyasi, askeri ve ekonomik sorunlar çerçevesinde karşılıklı ilişkiler soğuk savaş dönemindeki gerginlik seviyesine ulaşmıştır. Günümüzde soğuk savaş döneminden bu yana ABD ve Rusya arasındaki stratejik dengeyi sağlayan silahsızlanma ve silahların kontrolü anlaşmaları birer birer yürürlükten kalkmakta, işbirliğine yönelik mekanizmalar etkinliğini giderek yitirmekte ve karşılıklı ilişkilerin zeminini oluşturan ortam yok olmaktadır. Diğer yandan ABD ve RF arasındaki rekabet askeri boyutu aşmış, ekonomik, kültürel ve bilgi ortamını kapsar hale gelmiştir. Bu ortamda hazırlanan RF 2021 Yılı Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi, 2 Temmuz 2021 tarihinde RF Devlet Başkanı Vladimir Putin’in 400 numaralı başkanlık kararı ile onaylanarak yürürlüğe girmiştir. Stratejide geçmişe kıyasla değişmeyen ana husus RF’nin, ABD’nin her alanda uluslararası sistemdeki hegemonyasına karşı çıkışıdır. RF, stratejide kendisini tehdit veya düşman olarak tanımlayan bazı ülkeler bulunduğunu ifade etmektedir. Dokümanda RF’nin güvenliğini tehdit eden durumların aktörleri olarak gösterilen bazı ülkeler tanımlamasından başta ABD’nin kastedildiğine şüphe yoktur. RF, kendisine yönelik dostça olmayan yaklaşımlara simetrik ve asimetrik cevap vermeyi meşru bir hak olarak gördüğünü stratejide açık bir şekilde ifade etmektedir. Dokümanda, RF’nin geçmişte görülen Batı ve ABD ile karşılıklı eşit düzeyde ilişki kurma paradigması değişikliğe uğramış ve Batı ve ABD ile RF’nin çıkarlarına hizmet ettiği oranda ilişki kurulacağı ifade edilmiştir. RF, günümüzde somut olarak kendisine en büyük askeri tehdit olarak varlığını sürdüren ABD ve NATO’ya karşı kendini görece güvende hissetmektedir. Ancak dolaylı olarak güvenliğini tehdit eden bilgi ortamını ise en büyük tehdit olarak görmektedir. Moskova kendisine karşı yürütülen bilgi harekâtı ile bilgi ortamı ve kültürel egemenliğinin aşındırıldığını iddia etmektedir. Bu kapsamda, RF’nin sosyo-ekonomik sorunları bahane edilerek halkın protesto potansiyelinin renkli devrime yol açması maksadıyla çaba harcanmakta, tarih saptırılmakta, Rus kültürü Batılılaşmakta, Rusya’nın imajı bozularak dünyaya lanse edilmektedir. Bu doğrultuda 2021 yılı Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisinde Rus dili, kültürü ve bilgi ortamı güvenlikleştirilmektedir. Moskova kendine yönelik doğrudan bir askeri tehdide oranla, bilgi ortamı kullanılarak içten çökertilmesine yönelik dolaylı bir tehdidi daha önemser görünmektedir. 20. yüzyılda, 1917 ve 1991 yıllarında, Rusya’nın çok çeşitli sebeplerle birlikte esasen iç gelişmeler nedeniyle çöktüğü göz önüne alındığında RF’nin kaygılarının yersiz olmadığı değerlendirilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Rusya Federasyonu, Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Bilgi Alanı, Kültürel Egemenlik.

Abstract

National security strategies are important because they are the main documents at the strategic level that guide the policies of the states. The mutual relations between the Russian Federation (RF) and the West, and especially the United States of America (USA), within the framework of the political, military and economic problems related to the annexation of Crimea by Moscow in 2014, reached the level of tension during the cold war period. Today, the disarmament and arms control agreements that provide the strategic balances between the USA and Russia since the cold war period are being abolished one by one, mechanisms for cooperation are gradually losing their effectiveness and the environment that forms the basis of mutual relations is disappearing. On the other hand, the rivalry between the USA and the RF has exceeded the military dimension and has come to encompass the economic, cultural and information environment. The RF 2021 National Security Strategy, which was prepared in this environment, was approved by RF President Vladimir Putin's presidential decision numbered 400 on July 2, 2021 and entered into force. The main point in the strategy, which has not changed compared to the past, is the RF's opposition to the hegemony of the USA in the international system in every field. RF states that there are some countries that define itself as a threat or even an enemy in the strategy. There is no doubt that the United States is primarily meant by the definition of some countries that are shown as actors in situations that threaten the security of the RF in the document. RF clearly states in the strategy that it considers it a legitimate right to respond symmetrically and asymmetrically to unfriendly approaches towards it. In the document, the RF's paradigm of establishing equal relations with the West and the USA, seen in the past, has changed and it is stated that relations will be established with the West and the USA as long as they serve the interests of the RF. Today, the RF feels relatively safe against the USA and NATO, which continue to exist as the biggest military threat to it. However, it considers the information environment, which indirectly threatens its security, as the biggest threat. Moscow claims that its information environment and cultural sovereignty have been eroded by the information operation against it. In this context, efforts are made to cause the protest potential of the people to lead to the color revolution by using the socio-economic problems of the RF as an excuse, history and Russia's image are distorted and presented to the world, Russian culture is westernized. In this direction, the Russian language, culture and information environment are securitized in the 2021 National Security Strategy. Moscow seems to attach more importance to an indirect threat to its internal collapse using the information environment than to a direct military threat to itself. Considering that in the 20th century, in 1917 and 1991, Russia collapsed due to various reasons, mainly due to internal developments, it is considered that RF's concerns are not unfounded.

Keywords: Russian Federation, National Security Strategy, United States of America, Information Space, Cultural Sovereignty.

1. Introduction

National Security strategies are important because they are the main document at the strategic level that guides the policy of the state. Being the largest country with an area of ​​approximately 17 million km², which makes up 1/7 of the world, is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, has a large natural resource reserve (the world's largest natural gas reserve, the 8th oil reserve) and a strong armed forces based on nuclear weapons. RF's national security strategy is important both globally and for the countries of the region.

RF's National Security Strategy[1] is the basic strategic planning document that includes the goals and objectives for ensuring the national interests, strategic priorities, national security and long-term sustainable development of the RF. The National Security Strategy is the most important strategic planning document and guides the military doctrine and foreign policy concept.

The National Security Strategy of 2021 is the fifth national security strategy of the RF. The first strategy was published by Yeltsin in 1997, the second strategy was published by Putin in 2000, the third strategy was published by Medvedev in 2009 following the RF-Georgia War, and the fourth strategy was published after the annexation of Crimea in 2015. According to the Strategic Planning Law of the Russian Federation, which entered into force in 2014, the national security strategy must be updated every 6 years. The RF 2021 National Security Strategy, which was prepared in this context, was approved on July 2, 2021 by the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin's presidential decision numbered 400.

According to the document, the national security of the RF includes the protection of national interests against internal and external threats, the preservation of the constitutional rights and freedoms of citizens and a high standard of living, the establishment of peace and harmony within the country, and the protection of the national sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity and socio-economic development of the RF.[2]

The aim of this study is to reveal the RF's 2021 National Security Strategy. The basic assumption of the study is that the RF has expanded and hardened the dimensions of the rivalry and conflict between the USA and the West, it has become more than the military dimension, including the issues related to the field of culture and information. Moscow is willing to develop cooperation with the West as long as it benefits itself, and that the internal problems and sensitivities are given more importance. In this context, in the study, first of all, the RF's National Security Strategy of 2021 will be discussed in general terms, and then the strategy will be evaluated and finally the study will be concluded.

2. Review of RF's National Security Strategy for 2021

In the section where the role of the RF in the modern world is explained, it is expressed that the defense capability of the RF ensures the unity and political stability of the state due to the consistent policies it follows, the economic modernization and the development potential of the industry lead the RF to conduct independent foreign and domestic policy and effectively resist external pressures. According to Moscow, the modern world is in a process of transformation. The emergence of new economic and political power centers and the strengthening of the regional and global positions of these countries lead to changes in the structure, system, rules and principles of the world order.[3]

The desire of some Western countries to maintain their hegemony causes crises in the model and economic development processes of the modern world increase in development disparities, social inequality between countries, and internal political problems of countries, decrease in the effectiveness of international institutions.[4]

In an environment of increasing geopolitical tension, RF's foreign policy contributes to a stable international relations based on the decisive role of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), excluding the dividing lines and bloc approaches, based on international law, universal, equal, indivisible security and multilateral cooperation. In the document, it is stated that the Russian national security strategy will contribute to the country's being an influential center in the modern world.[5]

One of the most important determinations made in the strategy is that the security, territorial integrity and sovereignty of the state are ensured and terrorist activities have decreased significantly. Consistent implementation of military policy protects RF from military threats and dangers. In addition, foreign interventions in the internal affairs of the RF are effectively prevented.[6]

Despite external sanctions, RF has shown the resilience of its economy to the world. On the other hand, efforts to reduce foreign dependency in key sectors of the economy continue.[7] Stability in the global monetary and financial system decreases, struggle in accessing markets and resources increases, unfair competition tools, protectionist measures and sanctions are widely used.[8]

Some countries want to break the ties between the RF and its traditional allies and trigger the process that will lead to the disintegration of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Again, some countries define RF as a threat or even an enemy. The likelihood of armed conflicts turning into local and regional wars, including nuclear forces, is increasing. Space and information environment emerge as new battlegrounds.[9]

Efforts to isolate RF and, double standards in international politics undermine the effectiveness of multilateral cooperation on equal and indivisible security for the whole world, conflict resolution, terrorism, extremism, organized crime, and spread of infectious diseases, information security and environmental problems.[10]

Moral leadership and creating an attractive ideological basis for the future world order emerges as an important problem. Against the crisis of the Western liberal model, some countries are trying to erode traditional values, distort world history. An information operation is being carried out to create the image of "enemy Russia". The use of the Russian language is restricted and access to Russian media and news sources is blocked. RF is accused of violating international commitments, carrying out cyber-attacks and interfering in the internal affairs of other countries.[11] Using socio-economic problems, unfriendly countries try to harm the national unity of the RF, provoke and radicalize protest movements, support marginalized groups and try to divide Russian society. Indirect methods are used to trigger long-term instability in the Russian Federation.[12] It is of great importance to protect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence and traditional moral values of the country against these policies aimed at the containment of the RF.[13]

Strategic national priorities are listed in the strategy document. These priorities are the protection of the Russian people and the development of human potential, national defense, state and public security, information security, economic security, scientific and technological development, environmental security and environmental management, preservation of traditional and moral values, cultural and historical memory of Russia, strategic stability and mutually beneficial international cooperation. The foremost of these is the protection of the Russian people and the development of human potential. In this direction, improving the health of citizens, increasing the life expectancy, and birth rate, reducing mortality, increasing the quality of life and education have been the important issues.[14]

In addition, it is stated in the strategy that the political-military situation in the world can be defined as the formation of new global and regional powers and the intensification of the struggle for sphere of influence among them. In this context, the use of military power in international relations for geopolitical goals is increasing.[15] As for the military threats facing the RF, it is emphasized that NATO's increasing military infrastructure in the regions close to the RF borders, the intensification of foreign intelligence activities, nuclear weapons tests and the activities of large military units.[16] The US policy of withdrawing from international arms control agreements lies behind the development of the global missile defense system. The US deployment of medium and short-range missiles in Europe will undermine the strategic balance and international security.[17]

According to the strategy, tensions are increasing in the former Soviet geography, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and the Korean Peninsula. The weakening of global and regional security systems creates favorable conditions for the spread of international terrorism and extremism.[18] It is important to maintain an adequate level of nuclear deterrence to ensure RF's national security. It is also stated that it is necessary to protect Russian citizens abroad and that "color revolutions" must be prevented.[19]

Within the framework of the said document, the use of information and communication technologies for the purpose of interfering in the internal affairs of countries violates the sovereignty and territorial integrity of countries and poses a threat to international peace and security.[20] An increase is observed in cyber-attacks against Russian information systems. The majority of cyber-attacks against RF originate abroad. RF's attempts to ensure international information security are met with resistance from countries that want to dominate the global information environment.[21] Transnational corporations want to strengthen their monopoly on the Internet, to control the entire information environment.[22] The target of destructive activities in the information environment is primarily young people.[23] Historical facts distorted for political reasons are transmitted to users via the internet.[24] In this context, the purpose of information security is to ensure the sovereignty of RF in information space.[25]

In the field of economic security, the transition from the export of raw materials (energy resources) and agricultural products to new high-tech industries and entry into these markets, the technological renewal of the basic sectors of the economy, the use of low-carbon technologies will lead to changes in the structure of the Russian economy and ensure competitiveness and sustainability. In order to overcome the critical dependencies of the Russian economy, it is important to develop national technology and switch to domestic production. In addition, development should be continued in leading areas such as aviation, shipbuilding, rocket and space industry, engine construction, nuclear power complexes, which have an important place in the Russian economy. In addition, eliminating the dependency of the financial infrastructure, including the payment infrastructure, on third countries, the use of national currencies in international trade, and the reduction of the use of the US dollar in international economic activities are some of the issues given importance in the strategy. On the other hand, it is important to increase the control over foreign investments in strategically important sectors in the Russian economy.[26]

It is expressed in the strategy that traditional Russian spiritual values, culture and history are attacked by the United States and its allies, as well as by transnational corporations, foreign non-governmental organizations and terrorist organizations. The "Westernization" of Russian culture by psychological operations in the field of knowledge leads to the loss of cultural sovereignty.[27]

According to the strategy, some states that have lost their unconditional leadership are unilaterally imposing sanctions on other members of the international community and interfering in their internal affairs. RF follows a foreign policy that is consistent, independent, versatile, open, predictable, pragmatic, protecting its national interests and contributing to international security.[28] In this context, it emphasizes the conduct of international relations based on international law and the coordinating role of the UN and the UN Security Council in solving regional and global problems.[29] RF considers it a legitimate right to take symmetrical and asymmetrical measures to prevent unfriendly acts and their recurrence in the future.[30]

According to the document, the purpose of RF foreign policy is to create favorable conditions for sustainable socio-economic development, to ensure national security and to maintain the influential center role of RF in the modern world.[31] Foreign policy priorities in the strategy were determined as Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Eurasian Economic Union, Collective Security Treaty Organization, Union State, China, India, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), RIC (Russia, India, China). On the other hand, Russia attaches importance to the strengthening of fraternal relations between the peoples of Belarus and Ukraine and the protection of Russian interests in outer space, the world's oceans, the Arctic and Antarctica.[32]

3. Evaluation of RF's 2021 National Security Strategy

The strategy frequently includes statements criticizing the USA and the West. The salvageable relations with the West in the National Security Strategy of 2015 left to the approach pointing to a long-term confrontation with the West in the National Security Strategy of 2021.[33] In the RF National Security Strategy of 2015, which was published approximately one year after the annexation of Crimea by the RF, there is an expectation that relations with the USA and the West can be restored to normal. On the other hand, the RF-US and West relations, which got worse every year from 2015 to 2021, caused Moscow to take a tough stance against the USA and the West in the 2021 National Security Strategy. This indicates that RF has tended to pursue go-it-alone policies in the international system in many areas.[34] Although it is stated in the strategy that the RF will endeavor to create a stable international system on the basis of the UNSC, how and with whom this will be developed remains a vague question.[35] RF has tense relations with other UNSC members except China.[36]

While the role of shaping the emerging multipolar world is envisaged in the 2015 National Security Strategy, the 2021 National Security Strategy is based on strengthening its role as an influential center in the multipolar world.[37] Moscow thinks that the liberal model of the West is in crisis and that a new ideological leadership is needed to close this gap. Although there is no such statement in the strategy, RF strives for leadership in this area. RF has a conservative attitude towards the traditional values of the state and society. In this context, moral norms, the institution of marriage, family and national sovereignty are glorified and protected, and Western liberalism is seen as a threat to them.[38]

On the other hand, one of the factors that make the 2021 National Security Strategy different from the previous ones is that it focuses more on the internal sensitivities of the RF. The strategy emphasizes demographic crisis, political stability and sovereignty in all areas, national integrity, moral values, and economic development within the framework of new technologies, environmental protection and climate change. While the USSR was a major military power on December 21, 1991, the reason for its collapse was not a military operation that resulted in the invasion of a foreign army. The USSR collapsed mainly due to domestic reasons, among many other factors. The fact that the RF has achieved great power status, especially under Putin's rule, and has developed its army significantly against foreign military threats, has caused it to turn to domestic problems and sensitivities in the new strategy.[39] The main reason for internal-focused orientation is to consistently strengthen internal security by eliminating weaknesses and sensitivities. RF has determined to strengthen its internal structure as the best course of action in an environment of increasing tension with the USA and the West.

When the comparison of national priorities in the National Security Strategies of 2015 and 2021 is examined (Table-1), national defense was the first priority in the national security strategy of 2015, while in 2021, the protection of the Russian people and the development of human potential, and in this context, the solution to the demographic crisis takes the first place. Information security, which was not included in the National Security Strategy of 2015, takes place in the National Security Strategy of 2021. While economic development was expressed in 2015, economic security is mentioned in 2021, only the concept of culture existed in 2015, and the preservation of the traditional and moral values, cultural and historical memory of Russia in 2021 is mentioned. While drawing attention to the ecology of living systems in 2015, environmental security is emphasized in 2021, while in 2015 it is called equal strategic partnership, and in 2021 mutually beneficial international cooperation is mentioned.

Table-1: Comparison of RF's 2015 National Security Strategy and 2021 National Security Strategy
 

RF sees the demographic crisis it is experiencing as an important problem. In the last 15 years, 2020 has been the year in which the demographic crisis was felt most severely. There were approximately 324,000 more deaths than in 2019, of which 162,000 were due to COVID-19 pandemic. If the demographic crisis in RF continues in this course, it is predicted that the population will decrease by 30% in 2050, and the population of 147 million today will decrease to 112 million in 2050s.[42] The demographic crisis experienced by RF causes a decrease in the country's workforce, consumption, social investments and economic development capacity.[43]

The RF, whose relations with the West in general, and with the USA and NATO in particular, are even tenser than during the Cold War, considers that it responds to military threats and dangers by following a determined military policy. In this context, in the National Security Strategy of 2021, priority is given to the quality of life and well-being of citizens, cultural and traditional values, and the information environment, which is seen as a significant threat in this context.

Moscow considers information security an important priority and source of threat. In the 2021 strategy, more emphasis was placed on information security and ensuring sovereignty in the information space was highlighted as an important issue.[44] RF is concerned that the internet will activate social events and that history will be used as a political tool. RF sees the information environment as the battlefield of today and the future. In this context, technical and legal studies continue for the national internet connection that can work independently of the global internet system.[45]

Another important determination made in the document is economic security. RF wants to move from the export of raw materials based on oil and natural gas to the export of various advanced technological products and strives to reduce the impact of the dollar in international trade. On the other hand, increasing the income level, reducing inequalities, providing better health services and socio-economic development are other important issues. The RF National Welfare Fund stopped holding US dollars in its reserves on July 5, 2021. RF is also working on alternative solutions to be followed in case of withdrawal or removal from the international interbank exchange program SWIFT.[46]

It is noteworthy that RF emphasized climate change, which it had previously ignored in the strategy in question. While climate change was focused on its consequences in the 2015 National Security Strategy, it was addressed within the scope of prevention and adaptation in the 2021 National Security Strategy.[47]

In the new national security strategy, Russian culture was securitized and Russian cultural sovereignty was emphasized. While the West was defined as an actor attacking Russian traditional values, it was stated that RF was the protector of traditional and conservative values.[48] It is expressed in the strategy that unfriendly countries seek to destroy the integrity of RF and radicalize protest movements.[49] The USA and its allies are openly accused of attacking Russian values. It is clearly seen that the cultural dimension has been added to the military, political and economic confrontation between the RF, the USA and the West.

In the National Security Strategy of 2021, the United States and some of its NATO allies are defined as unfriendly countries. While it was stated in the National Security Strategy of 2015 that international strategic cooperation can be built on the basis of equality and respect, mutual benefit is based on relations in 2021. Contrary to 2015, the USA and the EU are not among the international actors to cooperate in the 2021 National Security Strategy. At this point, it is noteworthy that only China and India are the countries RF pointed to for cooperation, apart from the former Soviet geography and international organizations. However, while relations with China were based on strategic partnership in every field in order to maintain global and regional stability in the 2015 National Security Strategy, they turned into a comprehensive strategic partnership in the 2021 national security strategy. In addition, Antarctica was included in the 2021 national security strategy for the first time.

It is possible to state that the RF sees itself as a great power in the multipolar world within the framework of the issues specified in the strategy. When compared with the USA, which RF sees as its biggest competitor and is uncomfortable with its hegemony, based on concrete data (Table-2), RF ranks 1st in the world with 1,456 deployed nuclear warheads, while the USA ranks 2nd with 1,357 deployed warheads; RF ranks 3rd in oil production, USA 1st; RF ranks 2nd in natural gas production, USA ranks 1st; RF ranks 11th with approximately 1.48 trillion dollars in gross domestic product, while the USA ranks 1st with 20.9 trillion dollars; RF is in the 4th place in defense spending with 61.7 billion dollars, while the USA is in the 1st place with 778 billion dollars. In global exports, RF ranks 14th with 419 billion dollars, USA ranks 2nd with 1.64 trillion dollars; RF ranks 21st in global imports with 254 billion dollars, USA ranks 1st with 2.56 trillion dollars. RF is the 9th country with a population of 144 million, the USA is the 3rd with a population of 329 million, RF is the country with the largest surface area in the world with 17 million km², and The USA is the 3rd largest country with 9.8 million km². In addition, RF ranks 116th with a life expectancy of 73 years, while the USA ranks 49th with an average life expectancy of 79 years. Therefore, it is seen that RF lags behind the USA in many areas, especially in the economy and its extent reflected in defense spending. The main difficulty in front of the RF is to challenge the new world order established by the USA and to take steps to strengthen its great power status, while the aforementioned advantages of the USA are evident. It is evaluated that RF will use symmetric and asymmetric measures in a coordinated manner within the framework of its current capabilities.

Table-2: Comparison of RF and USA in Some Data.
 

Sources: “Russia by Numbers vis-à-vis the United States“, Russia Matters, https://www.russiamatters.org/facts/russia-101, (Access: 15.11.2021).
** “No.“ refers to their rank in the world.


4. Conclusion

As a result of the review of the 2021 RF National Security Strategy; it is emerging that the rivalry between the RF and the West will display a tougher outlook. RF makes many references to the concept of sovereignty in its strategy, emphasizing cultural, economic and information sovereignty as well as national sovereignty. It is seen that more areas are securitized in the RF National Security Strategy of 2021. RF's opposing position with the USA and the West has been reinforced, and there is no expectation for cooperation in the current situation. RF is trying to strengthen its internal security by focusing on its internal problems and sensitivities and tries to minimize the problems that the US and the West's superiority in the international system will create for itself. In this context, overcoming the demographic crisis, protecting cultural, moral and spiritual values ​​and dominating the information environment have been the most important priorities. The strategy that positions RF as a great power is limited by RF's existing elements of national power. It is considered that RF will continue to resort to indirect and asymmetrical methods in order to maintain a balance between its capabilities and objectives in the current situation.

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