How Will United States-Russia Balance of Power Challenges Impact on NATO Alliance and Southern Flank Ally Turkey?

Article

“We are all the losers if we move into a new Cold War, new arms race. So, we must try our utmost to find that balance between being firm, predictable, delivering credible attempts of defence, but at the same time trying to develop a better relationship with Russia including arms control and political dialogue with Russia.“...

“We are all the losers if we move into a new Cold War, new arms race. So, we must try our utmost to find that balance between being firm, predictable, delivering credible attempts of defence, but at the same time trying to develop a better relationship with Russia including arms control and political dialogue with Russia.“

NATO Secretary General


INTRODUCTION

NATO alliance is the strongest military security organization of our day. On the other hand, the competition on the power balance between Russia and USA reflects on NATO and European security, impacting Euro-Atlantic security negatively. This new arms race is escalating the threat parameter through nuclear armaments and ballistic missiles. While Russia is exploiting the differences between the NATO and USA which arose during the Trump administration, it is also allying with China in order to set up a counter in the Baltic- Black Sea-Mediterranean axis. On the other hand, Turkey setting out to obtain S-400 missiles from Russia and stepping up with the energy cooperation has been criticized by the NATO and USA. The arms aid as provided by USA to PYD and PKK in Syria is increasing, with the U.S. Senate’s suspension of the delivery of the F-35 missiles and further application economic sanctions are causing major fractions.

In 1991, just after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the first good news was the fall of the Berlin Wall, which caused tectonic shifts in the European security architecture in the ideological conflict between Western capitalism and Soviet communism. Thus, NATO enlarged the areas in which it operated on, which had been previously designated by the Warsaw Pact, even when Yeltsin had suggested that Russia might someday become a NATO member.

The second news was bad news: such dramatic changes caused the NATO-Russia relations to fell into a state of deep in crisis since 2008 Georgia War. The 2014 Ukraine Crisis, the ongoing deployment of Russian military force in Syrian Civil War and the allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential vote further exacerbated the relations. Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea especially led to a hybrid warfare with “Little Green Men’’, with the US deploying ballistic missile defence shields in NATO territory thwarting hope for a new “reset“ policy initiative in US-Russian relations.

In this article, we shall try to answer some sophisticated key questions which cannot be easily and definitely answered: How can NATO and Russia rebuild a new and constructive relationship in light of recent developments? Can U.S. and Russia look for and find new ways to reestablish ties? Why do these two superpowers need to prevent engaging in a dangerous arms race through testing strategic interests such as nuclear disarmament treaties in order to resolve policy differences? Can Turkey improve and normalize relations while keeping up with U.S. sanctions but also keep on cooperating with Russia? How will NATO and U.S. respond if Turkey operates S-400 missiles?


1. Russia Federation-US Confrontation in the 21st Century

In relation to the broad framework described above, the American national security strategy is being redrawn by the Trump administration. The new approach US is maintaining designates Russia and China as threats of risk, and as a result, it could be said that there are plans to reorganize the military force. Unfortunately, the foreign and defensive policy makers in the U.S. claim that their country’s role being that of a unique global leader. The U.S. sees itself as a global leader and a champion of liberal values. Trump’s foreign policy is drifting from the new look. He has publicly revealed his critical ‘America First’ policy shaped with 2017 National Security Strategy-(NSS); National Defence Strategy (NDS), and still describes the U.S. as “the world’s lone superpower,“ including “preserving peace through strength“ as one of the policy’s four pillars. Pentagon sees Russia as a threat and calls Russia a ‘revisionist power’ while the National Defence Strategy proclaims the U.S. is in ‘strategic competition’ with the Kremlin.1 On the other hand, Russia identifies several developments, including NATO expanding towards its borders and developing a missile shield project, the political instability and civil wars which began with the Colour Revolutions and further escalated with the Arab Spring, as a West-backed intervention and a threat of security. The priorities in this document can be enlisted as follows;

1. The Colour Revolutions and Corruption are the most importantthreats for the Russian Federation,
2. Chemical and Biological Weaponry Threats,
3. NATO’s enlargement exceeding beyond the border,
4. The Coup d’état Administration in Ukraine creating an image of anti-Russia,
5. Two Conditions for Opposition Against Nuclear,
6. Information War,
7. Military Power Usage,
8. The Danger of Economic Stability and
9. The Plans for Economic Recovery (Örmeci & Kısacık, 2018, pp. 249-251).

In terms of NATO and EU, the 2016 Russian Federation National Security Strategy has set forth the following evaluations;

It is taken from TASAM Publishing's book named “New World Architecture Of Economy and Security“
This content is protected by Copyright under the Trademark Certificate. It may be partially quoted, provided that the source is cited, its link is given and the name and title of the editor/author (if any) is mentioned exactly the same. When these conditions are fulfilled, there is no need for additional permission. However, if the content is to be used entirely, it is absolutely necessary to obtain written permission from TASAM.

Areas

Continents ( 5 Fields )
Action
 Contents ( 447 ) Actiivities ( 211 )
Areas
Africa 0 144
Asia 0 226
Europe 0 38
Latin America & Carribean 0 32
North America 0 7
Regions ( 4 Fields )
Action
 Contents ( 173 ) Actiivities ( 51 )
Areas
Balkans 0 93
Middle East 0 59
Black Sea and Caucasus 0 16
Mediterranean 0 5
Identity Fields ( 2 Fields )
Action
 Contents ( 175 ) Actiivities ( 71 )
Areas
Islamic World 0 146
Turkish World 0 29
Turkey ( 1 Fields )
Action
 Contents ( 209 ) Actiivities ( 54 )
Areas
Turkey 0 209

People's Republic of China has become the largest trade partner of Turkey, among Japan and South Korea and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region. In parallel with the increase in trade volume, the relations between the two countries have gained momentum.;

Turkey is attempting to sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), of which Argentina is a member. The "FTA Framework Agreement" signed in 2008 to determine the framework of FTA negotiations between Turkey and MERCOSUR entered into force in 2019. ;

The development of new alliances on security can be read from the risks and the initiatives undertaken by dominant countries. The quality of the concepts of property and power, and the business model change historically. The future of the EU with the "Failure in Success" syndrome will be determine...;

Ukraine, being a member of many regional and international organizations such as United Nations (UN), UN, Council of Europe, OSCE, CIS, WTO, GUAM, BSEC, AVET, BSEC, is one of the 21st century regional power candidates and it is foreseen that its importance will continue to increase in the near futur...;

Turkish companies in Sudan are mainly concentrated in the fields of iron-steel, cement, PVC production, leather, marble, grain import and export, bakery, curtain making and furniture, intercity bus transportation, agricultural products trade, white goods trade. ;

The development of new alliances on security can be read from the risks and the initiatives undertaken by dominant countries. The quality of the concepts of property and power, and the business model change historically. The future of the EU with the "Failure in Success" syndrome will be determined ...;

Turkey's historical, political and cultural ties between Europe, Black Sea, Caucasus, Asia, Middle East and African countries, rising activity in the international arena, especially in the United Nations, being an important member of organizations such as NATO, OSCE and CICA and with active foreign ...;

Turkey's historical, political and cultural ties between Europe, Black Sea, Caucasus, Asia, Middle East and African countries, rising activity in the international arena, especially in the United Nations, being an important member of organizations such as NATO, OSCE and CICA and with active foreign ...;