Istanbul Security Conference, which took place for the first time in Turkey in 2015, was held by TASAM’s National Defence and Security Institute on 05-06 November 2020, under the main theme “Security Institutions of the Future and Strategic Transformation After Covid-19; Army, Police, Gendarmerie, Intelligence, Diplomacy and Socio-economy“, and as a hybrid format event, due to the recent rise in the pandemic emergency, following the concerns raised by public authorities. A large number of speakers, from various disciplines, and delegates from different countries and regions have participated in the 6th Istanbul Security Conference, which has become a regional and global brand. All relevant authorities from Turkey have also been represented at the conference, sessions were followed institutionally.
Sub-events organized thematically, as part of the conference , are as follows: 4th Turkey - Gulf Defense and Security Forum, 3rd Turkey - Africa Defense Security and Aerospace Forum, under the main theme “Security Institutions of Future and Cooperation for Strategic Transformation After Covid-19“; 2nd Marine and Maritime Security Forum, under the theme "Building Future from Atlantic to Indian Ocean"; and 'New World Regulation After Covid-19' Workshop.
Istanbul Security Conference 2020, which brings together distinguished participants from almost 40 countries from the USA to China, from Russia to Iran provides a global platform for an in-depth exchange of views, driven by Turkey-based new perspectives with a competitive edge.
The takeaway points and recommendations offered in this conference, which is intended to focus on informing the public as well as all relevant authorities, are as follows:
Sub-events organized thematically, as part of the conference , are as follows: 4th Turkey - Gulf Defense and Security Forum, 3rd Turkey - Africa Defense Security and Aerospace Forum, under the main theme “Security Institutions of Future and Cooperation for Strategic Transformation After Covid-19“; 2nd Marine and Maritime Security Forum, under the theme "Building Future from Atlantic to Indian Ocean"; and 'New World Regulation After Covid-19' Workshop.
Istanbul Security Conference 2020, which brings together distinguished participants from almost 40 countries from the USA to China, from Russia to Iran provides a global platform for an in-depth exchange of views, driven by Turkey-based new perspectives with a competitive edge.
The takeaway points and recommendations offered in this conference, which is intended to focus on informing the public as well as all relevant authorities, are as follows:
- Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become all the more difficult to leverage the “power and prosperity model" that turns into "obstetrical complications“, in a timely manner, especially in the context of security and defense ecosystem. All actors faced a scenario, for which they are not prepared, imposed by the pandemic, while global governance has been seeking to keep a balance between its functions and economic, military, political and technological threats. The pandemic has risen the life-saving efforts to the top of the world agenda, as the foremost test of the commitments to collective safety, bringing global financial markets, international trade and international transport to almost a standstill and demonstrating that most of the national economies and their infrastructures are not resilient enough in the face of such threats. This global epidemic is also a lesson for all the great powers that downgrade the “soft-power areas“ such as public healthcare systems.
- It appears that, due to the COVID-19 crisis, building resilience across healthcare systems, which has become the primary responsibility of the nations themselves, must also be incorporated into the elements, which defined as integral parts of national capacity, including psychosocial, demographic, and geographic strengths, as well as human resources. Negative health governance relationships between citizens and governments have also a negative multiplier effect on the efforts against the pandemic. As such, it became an immediate priority for the health sector to improve the governance mechanism that allows, with its healthcare professionals, strong and practical responses to global health crises.
- A post-COVID-19 era, in which current global system is likely to be undergone certain changes, it must be an immediate strategic priority, for all countries, including Turkey, to develop projects and policies concerning "health system management", "disaster management capacity" and "crisis management capacity" when identifying the new elements of national strengths. Absence of any national strength element, which means lack of ability to establish a crisis management task, will remain a task, which is not fully functional.
- The concept of "controlled governance" appears to represent a major paradigm shift for any country that does not lose control of its infrastructure. Regardless of the definition of a future virus or a sophisticated crisis, the current paradigm is a global school, however, what is more essential is to be able to maintain and update the economic, social and security infrastructure in which the lessons- learned will be put into practice. As the immense risks of the demographic consequences of a suspension of social and economic activities are comprehended, it will be better understood what is noteworthy is the number of intensive care, intubation and death cases rather than the overall score of the cases. The efforts to minimize loss of life is a choice between two unfavorable outcomes or between "lesser of two evils". Food, water and health security have become not only a foremost priority for all countries and global governance, but also an area for further cooperation between governments and international community.
- It appears that not only have been shaped and deepened the threats by technological developments, but also how dramatic the effects that biological threats can have, as the COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated, to the public health and the global system. This requires both a special governance system dedicated to the health sector, and a review of governmental institutions and organizations based on the lessons learned from these threats. Fundamental shifts will occur, over the coming decades, within the more specific contexts of geopolitics, societal systems, economics and nation-state perspectives, as well as technology.
- There are already numerous discussions about potential threats posed by private labs exploiting the availability of biotechnological materials, and using them as biological weapons in the post-COVID-19 world. As such, intelligence agencies and armies should focus more attention on defense and security issues in order to address these potential threats that put both global and national security at a further risk.
- Although the COVID-19 crisis is a foremost public health priority for governments, it is also essential to focus on potential security threats such as bio-terrorism. As such, it is imperative, within this post-pandemic environment, for governments to work on new security measures against these potential threats on national, regional and international platforms.
- Not only potential nuclear and biological threats posed by terrorist groups, but also future cooperation for international security has been the subject of discussion by international organizations for many years. COVID-19 has had immense effects on all countries during just a one-year period of time, and this leads to concerns about the possible production of such viruses as weapons either in public labs or in private labs. Such viruses are like "free zones contaminated with mines" and cannot be effectively controlled. It appears that technology companies are more likely to be the potential sources of such threats rather than viruses falling into the hands of terrorist groups. Against such threats, governments should develop effective strategies concerning their internal security infrastructures.
- Although the security of these infrastructures has been an R&D area, as well as an area of policy and process development conducted by organizations, academics and private companies for many years, there have been certain circumstances in which critical infrastructures are vulnerable to threats. Critical infrastructures such as education, corporate governance, finance, corporate operations, satellite and defense systems, and digital platforms in which organizational, national, regional and international special meetings take place are already faced with new security threats caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This situation not only resulted in questioning of the effectiveness of security tools of public-private institutional digital networks, but also paved the way for further security measures.
- Increased internet traffic, during the crisis in question, more specifically increased need for home-to-office remote connections, as well as other activities such as online meetings and training platforms (i.e. Zoom) used by both public and private organizations have added a more controversial aspect to security risks. Data management and maintaining the privacy of data are complex processes in legal terms. The latest organizational form of this type of operations is the European Union's Cyber Security Act to which Turkey has committed in 2019. Except for this unique example, there is no single international and agreed-upon set of regulations or acts related to data management and privacy rights. For the Turkish Penal Code (TPC), any unauthorized access to the information system networks, any attempt to block these networks, destroy the system, remove or change the data are included in criminal activities, which are identified "cyber-crimes". In this regard, as part of the related security measures, TPC should put the "extradition procedure" into effect.
- A number of applications, such as "Life fits into Home" application in Turkey, have been developed across the world during the pandemic. These applications, however, contrary to Turkey's application, which is optional, in many countries, such as Australia, China and South Korea, are mandatory procedures. These procedures are crucial in terms of governance processes. However, they generate considerable discussions on how to maintain the rights such as privacy of personal data. Concerns about the collected data from GPS-tracking for instance and the duration of their use, their storage forms continue to exist. Thus, legal adjustments concerning these issues should be made as quickly as possible.
- The focus of the discussions shifted from the effectiveness or insufficiency of international organizations and possibilities or modalities of structural change in these organizations to the immediate future of world economies amid the rapid spread of the virus across the world. The consequences of constraints or restrictions and policy choices related to measures, aiming to mitigate the effects of the crisis, which, however, bring debts of not only public and private sectors but also households to new heights at the same time, are not manageable. Furthermore, it is unlikely for most of the countries, which are governed by these tendencies or mindsets, to assert or claim political independence or even to maintain their social and economic stability for decades to come.
- International organizations, such as WHO, UN, EU, NATO, faced a serious challenge that gave rise to questions about their effectiveness and even sincerity of their efforts against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, NATO's capabilities to respond to potential threats, such as massive biological attacks, have been questioned. This situation, together with the USA's newly elected President Joe Biden, appears to cause serious problems between the European Union and the United States within NATO.
- The support, which includes at least a symbolic value, to Serbia provided by China, to Italy by Russia and to the EU countries by Turkey, as part of the efforts in countering the pandemic, has led to questions and insecurity or distrust among the citizens of the EU member countries about the commitments of the union. It is estimated that the "Schengen" area, which is based on the principle of free movement of people within the EU zone, will be opened again to discussions, which will result in new disagreements.
- The aids provided by Russia and China to different countries have failed "Marshall Aid 2.0" to be implemented during and after the epidemic outbreak, and resulted in questions about the hegemonic power of the USA. It is already manifested that in certain circumstances, such as pandemic, individual countries are forced to turn their way inside. This does not imply, however, a rapid change in terms of the international system. In the broader context of global security, the difficulties and blockages in national security policies for human security result in challenges to authorities posed by COVID-19.
- Individuals are considered for the first time, in the context of the international order, as important actors that should be involved in seeking solutions to serious security challenges. This indicates that security of ordinary individuals can become a part of national and international security issues.
- COVID-19 has also led to certain changes in the activities of national security institutions. The spread rate of the epidemic is higher, particularly among the crowded order of troops, in nature, of military units. This situation causes not only serious problems in terms of effectiveness of the operations but also new security risks, particularly for the state actors engaged in active operations during this global health crisis. Serious difficulties, due to the use of classical methods while seeking solutions that fit for the current problems, lead up to the formation of new paradigms. The main parameters of new paradigms simply require new security measures that increase global cooperation, in which the correlations between personal health, personal safety and individual security are more deeply analyzed. Strategic cooperation and governance procedures, in the efforts not only to fight against terrorism, but also to increase the effectiveness of resolutions for international problems, should be improved.
- "Culture" is defined, by Joseph Nye, as one of the sources of soft power, which is also introduced by himself. In the broader context of international relations, certain concepts such as dialogue, trust, cultural and political recognition, and a powerful national image and a prestigious culture are some of the characteristics of a nation's ultimate goal. To fight against negative feelings or perspectives on national culture, to pave the way for future partnerships in other areas, and to introduce a worldview based on certain discourses, beliefs and ideologies are the parts of the aims of cultural diplomacy. Thus, certain elements such as historical background and cultural heritage, arts and crafts, exhibitions, gastronomy and literature are also instruments of public diplomacy. Cultural diplomacy, in order for the nations to spread their language and cultural contents across the world, started to design initiatives such as French Institute, Goethe Institute, Yunus Emre Institute and Confucius Institute. In this regard, culture is not only an important diplomatic tool, but also a soft power element, which is also one of the constituent parts of public diplomacy. It is inevitable that this domain will be processed with social media channels, which are also called "parallel world".
- The country brand building process is a set of actions aimed at persuading internal and external public opinion for interrelated purposes by engaging public and private sector interests with national interests. In other words, as a transfer of method, a corporate branding process is adopted by a country. The use of public utilities, public and private sector resources for the common interests is one of the priorities of this process. These image-building efforts by countries drives political powers and political institutions of supra-national organizations to make more sophisticated decisions. "Nation branding" is not an advertising campaign. It includes all the elements implicitly exist within the concepts of national image, national identity and national reputation.
- The public diplomacy concept has created new types of diplomacy concepts. Traditional diplomacy functions between states, new diplomacy instruments, however, are a set of actions which operate between states and the people. New diplomacy is also used as a means by various actors, including non-state actors, NGOs, and individuals. This, in turn, has created a specific environment within the global politics in which active and effective guidance can be made by mass media instruments. The new diplomacy approach has a tendency to address not only international relations studies, but also interdisciplinary studies. The "public diplomacy" concept, which is eventually linked to political power, defines a capacity to achieve specified goals, both by leveraging the political influence or economic instruments, and using culture, values and foreign relations as a means of attraction. The concept of public diplomacy continues to diversify and renew itself constantly in international relations studies. A specific concept has also resulted from COVID-19 and brought new actors and crises with it is "mask diplomacy" concept.
- The outputs of the age of modern technologies and digitalization process have shaped the media and consequently created new media tools. Given the areas in which it is largely used, new media have the capacity to pose threats to the secure areas of the states. Disinformation activities and propaganda exercises, which have the potential to create a chaotic environment within society and to pose threat to national security, cause new risks to both regional organizations and governments. Such media platforms, especially in which individuals use the new applications for sharing their feelings, opinions or criticisms can also be actively used both by intelligence agencies and by governments for disinformation campaigns in a way that can pose threats the national security.
- Communication, intelligence capabilities, new weapons and information technologies will be primary actors on the battlefield of the future. As a result of this, potentially autonomous and mostly AI-based defense systems will begin to be available. Autonomy, biotechnology and quantum technologies, along with big data and artificial intelligence, will enable digital battlefields with a competitive edge and “memetic warfare“ which exploit digital and intelligent systems as well as the full spectrum of domains.
- Technology and artificial intelligence will be particularly important for surveillance and reconnaissance during the intelligence operations of the future. As an outcome of physical and cyber operations, classification, reconnaissance, identification and threat detection opportunities will be easier. Based on the increased support, their use in the area of social media, video, voice, text, GPS detection and surveillance, reconnaissance and intelligence will also be increased. Emerging technologies, such as robotics or autonomous systems, will potentially be in use broadly in the future. These super-intelligent or artificial intelligence systems are the harbingers of the preparation process for a human-machine era.
- Diplomatic intelligence is a data organization and reporting task carried out by diplomats working abroad. "Intelligence-diplomacy", however, is a consensus process of which specifies the volume and the mutual exchange parity of the information-sharing between the agents of different countries. In other words, it is not a branch of public diplomacy. The developments in digital communication and new concepts such as data mining have made digital specialization and institutionalization in these areas inevitable.
- According to research carried out in 2019, there are certain differences in social media usage habits and interests among X, Y and Z generations. It has been observed that the generation Z is in pursuit of a different social media with different content. In this context, it is observed that the society and relevant user populations are not using new media tools properly, which results in increased vulnerability to the cultural disinformation as well as increased social and psychological negative effects on society. When it comes to security of this environment, discussions on these platforms points out that there are certain issues concerning social media literacy and "emotional-mental safety". So certain efforts such as trainings on the use of this rapidly expanding new media environment, awareness-raising campaigns and public service announcements will be effective in preventing negative social feelings as well as actions or behaviors.
- In diplomatic communication, statements made within special periods, bilateral cooperation processes or belligerent discourses are considered as diplomatic communication processes and Twitter has been used as a tool for these processes or purposes. Twitter accounts of state representatives, managers, employees, diplomats, academics and journalists have significant effects on diplomacy. The effectiveness of this method has created a more effective diplomatic domain, which may cause new crises as well as rapid resolution processes by supporting rapid communication protocols. However, this form of application can be a disinformation area, as well as have the capacity to affect diplomacy negatively.
- Non-state actors and illegal organizations, due to ongoing COVID-19 crisis, have been in tendency to involve acts against societies and systems. Increased use of online platforms has led to non-state actors to develop further their online propaganda exercises, which increase their mobility across online platforms, in a more effective way.
- Globally available new media tools, like social media applications, are already considered to be a public domain. However, this "public domain", which is also available for terrorist groups, among others, causes these criminal groups to engage easily with broader audiences or user populations and to reach an influential capacity over these populations. Furthermore, it serves a number of effective purposes of these groups such as promoting their organizations, conducting propaganda campaigns, collecting supporters, waging psychological warfare, hacking databases by attacking personal data, collecting donations and establishing network groups. So it is essential to establish social media intelligence units, improve the use of existing diplomatic channels, and deliver the right information to the foreign press and social media news networks. On the other hand, measures such as making room for or including media literacy, and especially new media literacy courses in syllabuses as well as promoting a "fact-check" culture concerning information sharing habits, personal information in particular, will develop a social reflex against disinformation activities.
- According to research on business communities, average service duration of companies decreased to 14 years, since early 2020. The reasons for this decline in the corporate age include lack of strong ideas, negative effects of daily basis or day-to-day decisions due to lack of a simple and clear vision or strategy, as well as difficulties in recruiting or finding employees with the right qualifications.
- The concept known as "Digital Darwinism" describes the circumstances or the process in which societies and technologies so quickly evolve that certain companies, due to their relatively slower evolution pace, are not able to adapt them. Companies with cumbersome procedures cannot easily adapt to this relatively rapid evolution process. In Turkey, 14percent, during the 2020s, and 33percent during the 2030s, of business organizations face the risk of automation. In 2020, governments and organizations have faced with major challenges due to the digital age along with the big data and artificial intelligence, and lack of political effectiveness of international organizations related to this age's issues, as well as geopolitical vulnerabilities and political or economic power struggles. Certain factors such as political power, foreign policy, culture and digital culture, education, entrepreneurship, technology and products, characteristics of habitability or "inhabitability" of a country and friendship can be considered as the sources and drivers of soft power. Today, it appears that the most of the prominent brands in the world are technology corporations. Diplomacy, as a tool of soft power, driven by technology and digitalization, have generated "digital diplomacy" (virtual diplomacy, twiplomacy, cyber diplomacy, e-diplomacy).
- In addition to the policies implemented by the US government amid growing COVID-19 crisis, the statements made by US President Donald Trump damaged the "American dream" and tarnished United States' image. The image of a state is not fixed and unchanging, and may be affected by the acts, attitudes or behaviors, as well as statements made by its representatives. Consequences of Turkey's medical assistance and mask delivery, as part of its health diplomacy, to certain countries, during COVID-19 pandemic, and economic and bilateral outcomes will gradually be visible. And this will be able to be measured by the degree of success of the soft power initiatives towards, and from the point of view of the recipients. It is also possible to analyze the reactions the recipients through social media tools.
- The COVID-19 crisis has led to certain changes in the areas of governance, business, education/training, and leisure activities. These changes are accompanied by a general tendency among individuals to change their social habits and consumption patterns. The ongoing digitalization trend has accelerated as a consequence of or to meet the needs of people and begun to become a part of daily life. Furthermore, it is observed that certain cultural changes also caused by these tendencies and/or changes. To adapt to these new circumstances, governments should undertake studies concerning software and hardware as well as content.
- During the pandemic, it is reaffirmed that the future core sectors, which have the potential to transform the global business models, power and wealth distribution patterns, security and defense tendencies, will be “Robotics“, “Biotechnology“, “Artificial Intelligence“, “Nanotechnology“, “Space“ and “Strategic Services“. Current crises have made, in the new or changing strategic environment, the definitions of "security" and "power" concepts more noticeable, of which have been insisted over the last 15 years. So it is essential for organizations and stakeholders, which operate in defense, security, diplomacy and socioeconomic domains, to re-organize themselves by reviewing, revising or re-interpreting these new conventional concepts. In this context, one of the key aspects of situational awareness lies in the fact that there is no need to search for hostile powers or adversaries within or beyond their borders, and that the adversary and friend or ally actor lies in the strength of a country's institutional infrastructure and its momentum of developing a regulation shift.
- The higher level of co-operative endeavors in the international arena attempted by law enforcement agencies against the trans-boundary threats such as terrorism, organized crimes and irregular migration represents a burden of responsibility that falls more heavily on the law enforcement agencies, their training institutions and their staff, by opening new "sub-security-areas" and "training-diplomacy" under the framework of public diplomacy. In this framework, following the publication of the "National Public Diplomacy Strategy Document and Action Plans", the need for the development of mutual-action patterns and mutual-discourses and for law enforcement staff to acquire not only foreign language skills but also digital diplomacy capabilities will increasingly continue.
- A systemic and structural transformation is imperative for the structure of Gendarmerie General Command and for special staff training units as part of Turkey's internal security issues. So, it is essential to work on the professional qualification criteria of the security guards assigned by private security companies and to employ well-equipped staff in their duty areas -especially in critical facilities.
- Considering safe cities, it is necessary to create flexibility that can produce alternative solutions. More specifically, efforts in this area, not only at the level of law enforcement and security forces, but also all public spheres and all segments of the society, should be integrated with each other as a cooperative form of mutual task or mobilization. A prepared civilian resistance force and strategic raw material storage buildings or warehouses should be built in the cities in case of serious emergencies such as disasters, hybrid attacks, terrorism and armed conflicts. In addition, national and collective defense capabilities of countries should be improved across the spectrum of key sectors in order for them to prepare for potential security threats and crises.
- One of the transformation parameters of the future police force is the digitalization process. It is extremely important to establish and develop a cyber security infrastructure for digital transformation within the Turkey's police force, which attempts to integrate with the system. Integration of products and systems with each other should be regulated according to certain rules or standards, and strategic- information-storage buildings should be established.
- Such technologies, potentially integrated with law enforcement agencies, such as smart cities and urban security technologies, urban firing direction detection systems, and AI-based systems, which can identify behavioral patterns as well as anomalies, are among the technologies which will shape the future police/gendarmerie forces. Technologies such as face recognition systems, biometric identification, wearable technologies and smart patrol vehicles will also improve service capacity for police/gendarmerie forces in crime prevention and arresting procedures.
- National security actors and national operation structure, including essential security elements such as command-control, intelligence, reconnaissance, surveillance, logistics and cyber-space, will completely change across the broad spectrum of autonomous systems through artificial intelligence technologies, which are potentially available for the operation modes of the armed forces. Artificial intelligence, which provides military and economic advantage or competitive advantage for states, can turn into a threat if it falls into the wrong hands or non-state actors. Artificial intelligence has already bee used, in protecting the rights and interests of individuals, as part of the operations in essential domestic security domains such as public health, natural disasters, critical infrastructures, border security and fight against terrorism. Preventive law enforcement, counterterrorism operations, routine office works, critical infrastructures, are other domains that make use of artificial intelligence technologies in order to reduce the workload or to increase security measures.
- Confidentiality of the rules of military engagements, military intelligence in particular, and their effectiveness has undergone certain changes due to the new technologies. Conflict maintains its traditional nature, while its characteristics are changing. The conflict is no longer manifest itself as a military task, it appears now as task of technology, engineering and private companies. So, it is extremely important to develop new concepts and doctrines, new training systems and models, new military policies and R&D, as well as innovations to increase the strength and capability of the law enforcement agencies.
- The routine tasks of gendarmerie forces include both internal and external security operations. The future gendarmerie is considered by certain international organizations, such as NATO, as important task forces of external security operations.
- The future law enforcement concept tends to be built with autonomous, virtual and artificial intelligence technologies. Given future crime profiles, it is estimated that new types of crimes committed in a technological environment and new criminal profiles will emerge; and duties of law enforcement agencies will change within such an environment. So, preparedness is essential to asymmetric threats such as changes in approaches to territorial borders, opportunities and capabilities provided by internet-based environment or information technologies, new crime types, pandemics and new crimes as implications of these types of health crises.
- To meet the requirements of relatively new security concepts such as risk, threat, and fight against terrorism, law enforcement agencies should focus on more specific training models rather than a general training model. It is also important to develop multiple-curriculum systems, including extra-curricular activities such as comparative history, sports, as well as specific law enforcement training activities. The agents of future law enforcement agencies should be able to operate both individually and collectively, through improved remote education or training models and tools with virtual reality and artificial intelligence capabilities.
- Distributed and mosaic operation concepts are system models, during enforcement units dispersing over large areas, in which communication, interaction and information flow continues without interruption. Such concepts are opportunities that reduce risks and costs by supporting remote training courses of battlefield, vehicles, processes, flight simulations and battlefield medical training through virtual reality technologies.
- Artificial intelligence technologies play a significant role as an integral capability of defense industry parameters. Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) technologies are increasingly taking place around the world, as part of R&D. However, it is particularly important to protect the information and software of existing UAVs through AI systems and intelligence capabilities. Turkey is among the countries that has quickly leveraged the UAVs systems. Projections are immediately imperative, as there are deficiencies in the "golden solutions", even if scenarios are quite abundant.
- In addition to new threats such as hi-tech crimes, cyber attacks and disruptive AI systems, new measures concerning these threats, such as criminal procedures and crime deterrent started to enter into legal literature, due to widespread internet access. Incorporation of artificial intelligence and cyber attacks into the warfare must be carefully considered and studied with its legal and ethical aspects as well as the critical position of law enforcement agencies in such an environment.
- In the context of terrorism and cyber crimes, Turkey has been fighting against the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), which with a changing concept, since 2013. Trough cyber attacks, it managed to infiltrate the headquarters of cyber crimes departments of public institutions. Accessing confidential information by infiltrating the institutions through IT infrastructures paves the way of more disruptive actions such as sabotaging critical infrastructures and damaging their contents. Efforts in informatics and cyberspace must be improved along with Turkey's efforts and effective measures against mainly conventional crimes. An efficient initiative against cyber-terrorism is not fully achieved yet in Turkey.
- Key concepts such as "critical thinking" and "good qualifications" are a passport whereby the order is established to success in order to retain a competitive edge over the decades to come. It is important, particularly under the current circumstances, to mobilize the strength of "institutional infrastructure" by reviewing these parameters, which as references throughout the world history. Furthermore, under these circumstances, where the world appears to have reached a civilization impasse, it is extremely important, in terms of "power and justice" perspective, to review the international system as well, which was built up after World War II -under more ideal circumstances compared with today. Otherwise, it is very unlikely to sustain a "manageable world" or any "country profile". Further comprehensive specialization in managing "unpredictability" and "contrasts" should also be a priority to underpin the "institutional infrastructures" -even if it improves as tackling the actual crises.
- To follow and deepen the traces of the "breath" for the environment, which is a positive outcome of the slowdown in production chains and changing business models under the COVID-19 circumstances, would prevent the world from wasting of a significant ecological-balance opportunity. Expectation management capacity against the multi-dimensional societal shocks caused by the pandemic will be the key to social and economic security in terms of public administrations.
- It is essential to establish certain units to fight against economic, social, cultural and psychological propaganda, as well as radicalization campaigns. To strengthen the ties between the governments and the people in the regions where terrorist activities are at a higher level, it is necessary to have extra-curricular activities for law enforcement officers. It is important that law enforcement officers use the power they have had in a moderate manner and measures should be taken for this end while maintaining necessary training. More efforts to fight against the hostilities and hate speeches against disadvantaged groups are completely necessary. In the context of fighting against radicalization, law enforcement agencies should be in coordination and cooperation with not only neighboring countries but also other countries to carry out joint academic studies and projects between institutions, and to establish a network against radicalization.
- Measures, due to COVID-19 pandemic, such as partial or general curfews, travel restrictions, suspension of business activities as well as face-to-face education not only have had positive and negative effects on both society and individuals and law enforcement units but also criminal activities. COVID-19 restrictions across the world have decreased the percentages of some types of crimes but increased some others. According to April 2020 research data, in Turkey in March 2020, there was a 17percent decrease in security crimes, 27percent increase in smuggling crimes, 42percent increase in cyber-crimes, 60percent decrease in sexual abuse of children, 45percent increase in insult, assault and bullying crimes against public personnel and 14percent increase against law enforcement officers.
- A research, which was carried out by OXFAM in 2019, found that the income of the richest 26 people in the world equals half of the income of the world population; and a recent economic analysis performed by Davos, in 2020, indicates that the wealth of 2.153 people equals to 60percent of the world wealth in total, which demonstrates the tremendous amount of economic inequality. The COVID-19 has exacerbated already high rates of unemployment and poverty, while increasing the inequality between people and putting the most vulnerable groups at further risk. If governments are to maintain the fight against the increasing inequality, they should correctly identify the main factors that cause this inequality and mobilize the ability to take the requisite action to cope with these problems properly. Inequality, which is one of the essential parts of national security issues, will cause significant societal division or threaten political cohesion in the societies that cannot establish a balance between these fundamental elements. It is also "a harbinger" of both internal and external security challenges. However, it is also likely that the current recession or economic shrinkage and stagnation will be a global "rectification" or "regulation" without a "total war", and a respite from the resource crisis, which is trapped in the vicious cycle of "debt-money-debt". However, indebtedness and relative wealth sharing in capital distribution will continue to deteriorate for humanity.
- Global problems such as domestic violence and "femicide" cases have increased significantly as a result of living more restricted areas, such as homes or offices, under regulations, such as curfews and travel restrictions, that bypassed normal processes due to the COVID-19 emergency. The recent research in Turkey suggests that incidences of domestic violence, violence against women, and women-murders have demonstrably increased, and most notably in May when extensive precautionary isolation measures were taken. Given the occupancy of shelters for battered women, health measures against the pandemic, and the intervention processes of the security forces during the COVID-19 pandemic, it is observed that the safety of the victims of violence could not be efficiently protected. The efforts and the measures against such social problems, including discontinuation of violent content in visual and audio broadcasting media, imposing deterrent penalties for the individuals and organizations that make these broadcasts and these types of content available, increasing the effectiveness of public service announcements, increasing inspections by law enforcement agencies and improving rapid intervention capabilities in violence-acts or processes, imposing deterrent penalties against such violence-acts, and announcement of these punishments through mass media, will provide deterrence. It is also important to establish social service teams, such as mobile health teams, to reduce incidences of domestic violence and violence against women, to work on improving active intervention capabilities.
- Human mobility, personal hygiene and living conditions, health education and social awareness are interrelated factors by which epidemics gain space, across the countries through strategic transports and trade routes pass. And in such an environment, virus outbreaks have the capacity to affect not only individual and social security but also national and international security. Social welfare states have gained higher success, compared to mass democracies, against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis.
- Smart city models provide an easy and comfortable urban life as well as a systemic infrastructure for national and local security. Digital technologies, which reduce environmental impact or pressure and ensure smooth running of daily services as well as improving the quality of life, are essential for smart cities. Smart cities also provide security services integrated with artificial intelligence technologies for the effective functioning of smart police/gendarmerie services included their systems.
- Although public transport is seen as a cost-reducing and relatively labor-saving factor for cities, people's search for comfort and their desire to save time make it necessary to develop smart city models for public transport services, especially for large cities. Due to its sustainability and sensitivity to the environment, it is estimated that smart transport networks or models will be an integral part of a safe and comfortable travel as well as future smart cities. COVID-19, which is an important factor that affects also the decision makers about the necessity of these technologies, may be a part of future smart cities.
- Smart cities are one way of protecting technologies from uncertainty and manage them effectively. These technology-based systems are very susceptible to damage and cyber-attacks. The critical infrastructures must be protected by specific cyber security tools and protocols, especially online applications such as the EBA online education program provided by Turkey's Ministry of National Education, which has been used effectively across the country as part of the measures against the COVID-19 emergency. Smart cities and their systems, which are considered as critical infrastructures, are a field that requires interdisciplinary studies, which need to be developed in balance with the security and innovation R&D against cyber-attacks.
- Although scenario-based discussions and forecasting are abundant, it is very difficult to predict what might be the next area of complex crisis or epidemic. The pandemic represents a huge" distress flare" or a significant "milestone" signaling that threats to a changing security environment of most of the countries will not be posed by other countries' armies, but rather by a series of challenges arising from e.g., economic collapse, political oppression, famine, overpopulation, ethnic divisions, war, internal conflicts, regional and national conflicts, destruction of nature and the environment, terrorism, organized crime, violence acts against their own people, "epidemics", human trafficking and dangerous substance trafficking, smuggling, arms and drug trafficking, money laundering, as well as massive financial manipulations or "financial frauds" seeking to disrupt the market stability of the emerging economies of the emerging democracies.
- In the light of the findings and recommendations outlined in this declaration, it has been carefully emphasized that further cooperation and dialogue with the relevant authorities representing more specific topics such as army, police, gendarmerie and "intelligence-diplomacy" is of historical importance for creating synergies between R&D and concrete technical and political action plans.
06 November 2020, Istanbul
