Western Asia vs. the Western World Shrinking from Asia

Opening Speech

Dear Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is our duty to thank for this timely event to Chairman Mr. Abdullah Dadabhoy, President Lt.Gnl. Agha Umer Farooq, Secretary General Mr. Ahsan Mukhtar Zubairi, authorities of beautiful and brotherly Karachi and members of the CPSD for their perfect organization and warm hospitality....

Dear Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen, It is our duty to thank for this timely event to Chairman Mr. Abdullah Dadabhoy, President Lt.Gnl. Agha Umer Farooq, Secretary General Mr. Ahsan Mukhtar Zubairi, authorities of beautiful and brotherly Karachi and members of the CPSD for their perfect organization and warm hospitality.
 
Dear Friends, As we are a part of the global family of nations, it would be appropriate to discuss our contemporary issues within the historical evolution of international relations. 
 
By the end of the age of Imperialism, Western powers started leaving Asia, i.e. China, Indonesia, Viet Nam, India, Philippines etc. Hence we observe a continual shrink of the Western world from Asia. This, in a way resembles the Ottoman shrink from its European lands after its two unsuccessful tries at the gates of Vienna. In Paul Kennedy’s dictum, they were all, over-stretched.
 
Post WW 2 era was a new age where powers did not need more land and population, rather it was a burden. "Controlling/Manipulating" resource rich or strategically vital geographies and lines was the new strategy. And Afghanistan is the last major key in the Heart of Asia the West is clinging, soon to leave it.
 
Dear Friends,I do not want to boast in a determinist approach to history, yet having served four years in Afghanistan, the so-called graveyard of empires, I do see the American fatigue and an eventual evacuation of the region. In recent words of President Trump, the USA will keep a heavy intelligence presence in the region, perhaps seeking a harmonius relation with a future Islamist regime in Afghanistan.
 
Why I started by reference to Afghanistan, is that an American exit shall have a strong impact for Iran, Pakistan, and secondary, Russia, Turkey, India and China. Post-American Afghanistan may be another interesting subject of discussion for us soon. We may expect Western policies not Pro-Active and Constructive, but Re-active and De-constructive in the region i.e. manipulating Uighurs in China.
 
Also of mention should be ISIS relocating from the Middle East to Asia. We should note here that the 20th Century was the age of the death of ideologies. Hence religions were the only political instruments left against local oppressors and/or foreign  interests. ISIS may be a handy instrument as proxy, a fifth column to decompose nations in ethnic and religious cleavages from Russia all the way down to India and China. Again to note, ISIS does not target Israel and Western countries.
 
Where does Pakistan stand within this picture? It is for our hosts to tell us of their future stand. Yet how I see it is, until now, Pakistan’s very skilled diplomacy reminds me of our genius diplomat Sultan Abdulhamid Han playing among the global powers. And Pakistan may soon face a decisive moment to choose between West and its Gulf allies, versus Asian powers. Here we can make a reference to Saudi Arabia in a period of very dangerous transition, while some Islamic scholars are calling for boycotting pilgrimage to Makkah. It is indeed a sensitive issue for Pakistan who has special relations with the Kingdom.
 
As for Iran, what I would call the “Millenial Survivor”, it has a bright future. Iran, like any historical power, naturally wants regions of influence, to meet threats not at its border but abroad, it does not want expansion in geography, not a serious threat to the USA nor Europe.
 
Yet there is an irrational factor corrupting the foreign policy of the USA. Its unquestioned, superstitious, obsessive loyalty to Israel. This blind loyalty also accelerates the waning of international legitimacy of the young American nation.
 
The overall problem is Israel’s policy of intimidation on American generals and politicians to target Turkey and Iran. As Israel forces the USA to squeeze Iran, the result affects Turkey and Pakistan, moreover European Union and Asian powers who need Iran’s energy and buying power.
 
Hostility to Iran is a miscalculation. USA and Israel are air powers. Their ground forces are not prepared to lose troops in tens of thousands. Hence they cannot occupy Iran, just bomb it, devastate it Mongolian style, or economically cripple it and wait for an internal uprising wishing for an American/Israeli vassal regime in the end. 
 
USA should realize that bombing nations from the sky without decisive result on ground does not work, just brings decades of devastation to innocent humans, interminable suffering to millions, the so-called collateral damage…
 
American generals and politicians, and their mentor Israel should find smarter policies to co-habit with Iran.
 
And Turkey, my country. Better to say Turkey and Russia. Russia and Ottomans, left behind Europe, and appreciating its advances, approached the Western Civilization with a sincere embrace. This approach gained momentum with Ataturk and post-Soviet era. Yet the West wanted to crush the pride of these two great nations, and arrogantly said, to put it in American slang, “My way or the highway”. 
 
And we are at the breaking point. West lost Russia, and all indicators show West is also ready to discard Turkey soon. We are entering a new era in global reshuffle as the global power axis shifts towards Asia. 
 
Israel factor also works here. Israel is expanding since it was established. It does not trust US nuclear protection, hence builds nuclear stock. It is a nuclear menace to the region. Western politicians either are scared to see it, or do not take it seriously. It continually wants more land. And with Yinon Plan, it doesn't want any country to surpass its military supremacy. 
 
It wants to Balkanize the region into every dividable way. It sees Turkey as the first challenger to its power. That is why it wants unprotected skies over Turkey. Israel makes sure  American generals and politicians block sale of F35, patriot and S400 missiles to Turkey.
 
It is about time for American people to decide whether it is “America First” or “Israel First” for their generals and politicians. And whether their ultimate loyalty is to Israel or to NATO. Such decision shall be effective on the future global legitimacy of the USA, it shall be effective on shaping new alliances in 21st Century.
 
Talking of NATO, Turkey has serious problems with it. Enough reasons for divorce. 
 
If you think of exaggeration, just turn the actors upside down, Turkey protecting terrorists who have bombed White House, Buckingham or Elysee Palaces.
 
PKK members are openly protected in Europe
TKPML, Turkish Marxist Terror Group is hosted in Europe
PKK/PYD is armed and trained in Syria by the USA against Turkey
Fetullah Gulen, mastermind of 15 July coup, is hosted in Pennsylvania USA
His active followers are scattered all over NATO countries in Europe
The USA wants to keep Turkish skies unprotected. Neither Patriot nor S-400, nor F35.
 
In short, Turkey’s enemies are not in Africa or Asia. They are welcomed in NATO countries, our supposed allies. There is wide belief among Turks that Gulen movement is an international extension of the CIA. 
 
Moreover, when Turkey downed a Russian fighter, rather than supporting the “ally” Turks, Western media said Turkey is putting NATO in danger, hence should be thrown out of the alliance. This was a nice little test to open our eyes. There are also growing voices in the West proposing to close Incirlik NATO base and parting ways with Turkey. 
 
Divorce is not soon, yet estrangement is the agenda. Polls show Turkey among the highest in American dislike in the world, while Evangelist enmity to muslims is snowballing in the USA. The two peoples do not know much about each other, and trade is negligible among them. The so-called strategic partnership is extremely fragile, from administration to administration, completely based on interests and not at all on mutual sentiments at the grassroots. EU is in the same tune. Hatred of muslims is snowballing.
 
Israel would be the happiest country if Turkey is thrown out of NATO and cut out of the EU, after which it is hoped to share the devastation of Iraq, Syria and Iran.
 
And Israel would not care what happens to global balances after such separation.
 
Now take globalization.
 
Workers of the West lost, workers of newly emerging powers gained from globalization. Soon, due to robotization and massive unemployment, middle classes of Western democracies may collapse, leading to social upheavals ending in xenophobia and totalitarian systems as before WW 2. Snowballing muslim hostility may lead to muslim massacres within the next ten years in Europe and the USA.
 
Special to note, in this process, we should fear declining powers rather than emerging powers, for losers may wreak havoc in the global village.
 
I also wonder if we would have a gradual landing into WW 3, or find ourselves suddenly in it with a panic and pre-emptive strike. Remember Tuchidides trap. What can we, the regional powers do? Not much.
 
Hoping such devastation distant, now let us see what we the three neighbouring nations can do together for the future of our children.
 
Our top concern should be the “muslims fighting muslims as proxies of Western interests”. We should wake up. We the three important powers of the Islamic world, together with Egypt, should try to encourage muslims not to fight each other. Yet it depends on being wise, real mu’mins…
 
Second concern I see is drought. And the massive exodus it would create from India, Pakistan and Iran to West within the coming decade. Top priority should be given to nuclear, wind and wave energy to desalinate ocean water and building arteries of pipelines to pump distilled water deep into the countries. Otherwise we shall be seeing millions at the gates of wet countries waiting for them with machine guns. Iran is in the best position for the time being to quickly utilize its natural gas for distillation. Pakistan has nuclear technology to start such a project. Turkey is not desperate at the moment, yet needs to be serious for the near future. As such, desalination may be an important joint concern among our countries.
 
Politically, micronationalism and sectarian decomposition is a serious threat for our region. Not only for us, but more so for European countries coming from a feudal political tradition. Russia is especially worried about ISIS to destabilize its ethnicities. Hence serious thought should be given to this global challenge. An international consensus should be sought to keep nation-state borders intact. A new kind of Westphalia perhaps.
 
Dear Friends, As our three countries are accelerating in military industry, a lucrative niche in global trade, we may seek fields of cooperation in joint production of weapons and missiles as cheap and competitive export products. Remember President Trump saying for Saudis, “They buy 450 Billion” worth from us. No other economic industry is so lucrative today. Soon the whole world shall imitate the USA in competitive production of the most powerful killers. That is what “brings jobs home”.
 
Another field of cooperation among us is education. 206 Turkish universities are happily getting more Iranian and Pakistani students every other year, yet we need more Turkish students and tourists in Iran and Pakistan so that Turks have a closer embrace of Persian and Pakistani Civilization, so that a historical reciprocal influence among our peoples would be restored.
 
Taking education; another serious issue is religion. Madrassas may be easy targets for harvesting fanatic terrorists against muslims.
 
Yet there is a more important issue. Globally accepted policy in education is secular education. As secular education is based on science, the result leads to Deism, not Abrahamic religions. What follows is either growing agnosticism or atheism as in Britain and Northern European countries. 
 
And our academics do not study the global impact of secular education for the millenial generation. A recent issue in Turkish media was, (although negligible today) on Deism, Atheism, Agnosticism and pork eating among educated Turks.
 
So the question is, how to balance secular with religious and traditional. This is a very serious issue on identity politics for our future.
 
And not only us muslims. Take the United States.
 
Mike Pompeo at a gathering of Christians United for Israel (CUFI) in Washington D.C. on 8 July 2019, makes a comparison of the USA with Iran. "A lot of people get spun up with the wrong ideas that American evangelicals want to impose a theocracy on America…”
 
Not only muslims, but the whole world should be worried about the USA turning into an “Evangelical Sharia Republic”. Evangelicals under Israeli control are gaining more power every other day. Soon, Israel may control the trigger of the deadliest nuclear weapons of human history through evangelical generals and politicians.
 
Here, I would urge our academic world to study the successful psychological methods Israel uses to tame American Generals, Media and Politicians for its aims, a method gradually sneaking into the leaderships of muslim countries.
 
As for Belt and Road Project, starting with my speech at IPIS in 1992 in Tehran, I have been tirelesly saying that the Silk road should be revitalized, that Iran is the Gate of Europe to East, and Turkey is the Gate of Asia to the West. The two brotherly countries should make sure that they abolish even the faintest hinderance to global trade through their borders. We cannot blame any other foreign power hindering commerce through our lands. Our destiny starts and ends with us. Pakistan is also a vital line in this game, and China is well aware of this fact. Our cooperation in this issue should be followed at the top level by leaderships of our three countries. Then embargos cannot have much effect on the Silk Road.
 
Now take media. Two points, I take as important here.  
 
When something important happens, we say “What would the world say?” By this, we indeed mean “What would the WEST say?” Our subconscious is formatted on convincing the Western public. Yet we do know that the effort is in vain. They do not give their ears to us. It is time to change our begging strategy. Our target audience should be East and South. That is the two directions we may find ears to listen to us. Befitting with the global axis shifting East, let us start a new strategy for 21st Century public diplomacy. At the grassroots, addressing the oppressed.
 
The second issue I deem important is that the Western media and diplomats base their reporting on the information from their mirrors in target countries. The minority Westernized elite. So their reporting is biased against the world view of the real, emerging populations. In a fast-changing world, they create a hostile atmosphere in their home audiences against our countries. With their outdated outlook, they miss the new world and its awakening citizens. Do not expect honesty of the Western media giving “OUR” point of view as against their interests. Again, no ears to listen to us.
 
Yet.. We are very very lazy. Our medias write about each other based on information they take from Western news agencies. In my diplomatic career, I have faced so many incidents that our media copy-paste Western news without the faintest screening and scrutiny, harming relations among us. I do not blame agents of foreign interests embedded in our media doing this. It is their mission. What I blame is real patriots doing this. Why? Laziness and ignorance.
 
Lastly, one important difference of our media with the West. In the West, it is a very long, arduous test through time by the global decisionmakers that a journalist finds place in the main media. Free journalism in the USA and Europe are true for ineffective rural media to let off steam. Whereas our medias are much more colorful than the Western main media. In our countries, anyone, naïve, ignorant, untested, can find any corner in the main media with completely contrary views to national interests. At this point, I take the liberty to say that our main medias are much more colorful and liberal than the tamed/disciplined pens of Western main media.
 
For the new internet media wars, educated numbers are a great asset. Remembering our populations, even our University student populations are greater than the populations of many countries. Yes, quantity is a strategic asset, yet if not qualified, it is of no use. If we could strategically prepare our youth, perhaps an efficient core army for media warfare, we may have a chance in this new realm of hostility.
 
And remember the web attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Think of a scenario where China or Russia cripples American infrastructure through web attack. Perhaps more dangerous than nuclear deterrence, this new method may TRIGGER WW 3. Hence the world should have new and special security systems against such intentional or accidental triggers. Especially so at a time where the Arctic melting, Persian Gulf crisis, Chinese maritime claims and East Mediterranean energy conflict bring additional threats to global peace.
 
To end my speech, I would like to draw your attention to the flow of villages to cities, a global phenomenon. The effect of this massive flow brings with it the secularization of new metropolitan masses. It further brings the cosmopolitization of the world, muslims included. Within this context, our academics and think tanks should have a mission studying;
 
What is the unifying cultural effect of technology on global masses?
How much Westernized are we?
From waking up, back to bed, in between, how much of our daily lifestyle reflects our traditional culture, how much reflects modern Western culture?
Which Western utilities can we discard?
Forget Western suite and necktie, can we ask our kids to discard American baseball hats?
Can we prohibit Western web games, music or movies? Impossible.
This is indeed a question of the formation of our future identity in the global village.
 
And to finalize, as Aristotle says, rural peasants are intimidated, they have the learned subservience, and cannot revolt, whereas in cities they are liberated and brave to revolt. In a world where about 80% of humanity shall live in cities soon, this democratizing effect of city life shall bring serious challenges for the rulers of the unjust world.
 
With this note, I would like to thank you for your patience.
 
II. Pakistan - Turkey - Iran Conference 18 July 2019, Karachi - Pakistan
 

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