The Reflection of The Crisis in Syria on Turkey


Since 17th march-starting date of the anti-regimist mass action There was a huge debate on how the events would going on and how it could effect the neighbouring countries.Turkey has warned the regime of Damascus about giving priority to reforms by pursuing the improvements in Syria closely. Ankara has expressed the messages differently that the events happened in Syria are accepted as our domestic affair and also They will not keep silent after events....

Since 17th  march-starting date of the anti-regimist mass action There was a huge debate on how the events would going on and how it could effect the neighbouring countries.Turkey has warned the regime of Damascus about giving priority to reforms by pursuing the improvements in Syria closely. Ankara has expressed the messages differently that the events happened in Syria are accepted as our domestic affair and also They will not keep silent after events. Besides the call for Reform, giving permission to the Antalya meeting of Syrian Opponent was an explicit message for the Damascus regime. However after few days later than the meeting of opponent in Antalya, thousands of people flooded in settlement unit of Cisr El Sukur 20 km far from the Turkish border would leaded that Turkey used higher discourse before Damascus.

The Problem of Mass İmmigration and Possible effects

With the start of anti-regimist Opponent’s arranging mass demonstrations since March,debates about the effects of events on Turkey have been started up. It has been expressed that The instability in Syria will effect Turkey in different forms. Thus the opponents arranging demonstration in Banyas opening the poster of the President Erdogan, thousands of Syrian escaping from the events and  being have to immigrate to Turkey are the signs that the Damascus crisis has begun to include Turkey directly.In this context; it is highly likely that the crisis happened in Syria deeply effect the relations between Damascus- Ankara in terms of politic, economic, social and diplomatic. Apart from these; the humanistic problems emerging during the events  could not be ignored.While Assad Regime using excessive force on civils to keep the presence leads to demonstrations spread quickly, the events will lead  a new Ankara centered Syria crisis to emerge before international public. As it is remembered, some Syrian had to immigrate to Turkey by passing through the provincial border of Hatay after the demonstrations on29th March. About 260 citizen of Syrian have taken refuge by passing the provincial border of Hatay. It has been told in the statement made after the so called immigration that the border will be open for the new immigrations and it has been underlined that the problem should be solved by giving priority to the reforms.

On  the other hand;it is expressed that  the main problem of emerging new refugee wave is 120 security guards have been killed during the demonstrations arranged in settlement unit of Cisr El Sukur. The official sources reliant to Syria Regime have claimed that the security guards have been killed by armed groups. Syria Regime has decided to perform a wide military operation. Syrians  who refrain from military operation arranged 20 km far from Turkey in company with tanks had to flood to the border of Turkey which they think safe.

However it draws the attention that the claim made by people of Syria is dramatically different from the claim of Syria Regime. According to the Syria Regime main reason of 120 security guard being killed is that the security guards rejected to open fire to the civilians. It is also claimed that the security guards who rejected to open fire to the civilians have been killed by the troop mostly consisted of Alevi to prevent the deterioration of military structure. Thus; it is expressed that the Assad Regime gives a very clear message to prevent the possible division in the army and if they go against the order of their command to open fire on civilians they will be killed.

Thus it is seen that the backstage of events leaded to refugee flow is still not clear and there are two contradictious accusation. But despite all these, people being injured by gun who have taken refuge in Turkey will enable that all the world see more clearly what have happened in Syria. It could be claimed that if such events happen at the border , the security guards could use harder precautions in the interior regions which is far from international community and close to foreign press and observer. Thus; contrary to all expectation of Assad Regime about reform it is seen that Assad power has been going on using element of oppression and constantly increasing the level of violent.

On the other hand; in these days on which the Syria crisis has started to turn into a humanistic crisis it draws the attention that Turkey tries to actualize a different strategy against crisis happened just beside. It has leaded to different perceptions in Damascus that The Syrian Opponents and explicit support given to the people immigrated to Turkey While the private corporation established with Assad regime and the result of High level Strategic Council Meeting have been started to be discussed. Turkey has established a ground for creating strong Assad opponents wave in the world opinion by giving permission to the civilians who have immigrated to Hatay to share events in Syria with international Press. Thus, The Press TV in Iran claimed that people who have immigrated to turkey are the member of armed organization. But it is stated that immigrants in Turkey are really civilians and they have been injured by the armed intervention of security guards.

The  other negative effect that Syria Crisis will create is the refugee problem coming out in case of the crisis gets bigger. It is told that the number of refugee immigrated to Turkey is approximately 3000 since 10th of June. Although Turkey does not accept the refugee coming from Syria formally, it is clear that they should be accepted as refugee in respect of international law. If the war in Syria continues with a bloody process, a serious migration wave will be emerge to out of the country from many groups such as Christian, Kurd, Sunni and Alevi Arabs. When the Iraqi Refugee are added, it is possible that this number reaches to hundreds or maybe millions. Thus Turkey will find itself in the middle of Syria Crisis in a short time just after the problem of refugee flow coming out. It is on the agenda that thousands of refugees who want to escape from the events coming to Turkey through the frontier region ranging from Hatay to Antep and Sirnak. While these developments establishing refugee camps and UN taking part in this actively have leaded to the reaction of Syria regime, the people of Syria being declined will make a nonrecoverable wound in the relation of Syria-Turkey. Thus Turkey ‘s accepting 3000 refugee coming in April after the first refugee group on 29th of April is a shown that Turkey will accept the other citizens of Syria in the future. But already required infrastructure works should be exercised. As it should be foresighted that after the first refuge group more and more will come to Turkey. According to an expert in High Commissioner Office for Refugee at worst over one million refugee may come to Turkey. This aforesaid refugee flow could be happen on condition that the regime changes or carries on. If the regime carries on by using force a heavy migration of Sunni, Alevi and Christians could be happen. Otherwise; Arabic Alevis and Christians may immigrate. Thus, it is clear that Turkey will turn towards a more active and remedial policy for Syria Crisis.

As a conclusion; after the election Ankara will focus on much more active policy against Syria Crisis and it is foresighted that this policy play an important role for overcoming the political and especially humanistic crisis.

Assoc. Prof. Veysel AYHAN, ORSAM Middle East Advisor

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