Economic Vision 2022 For Balkan Countries


In contemplating future regional cooperation/integration for Balkans the following order could be observed: ...

I. Introduction
In contemplating future regional cooperation/integration for Balkans the following order could be observed:
Vision - strategy (system reform) - policy (measures)
For Balkans vision could include among other the following elements[1]:
- intensification of intra-regional cooperation in all fields of social life,
- overall improvement of economic, social and political development level in Balkan countries,[2]
- further intensified integration of Balkans into global community, the EU and other alliances to the West and East. 
Vision of economic development is an important part of overall “Balkan 2022 vision”. Economic development consists of economic growth (measured by GDP and GDP per capita growth) and growth of supra-structure (social, demographic, ecologic, political life, equality, education, etc.) which both constitute growth of welfare of people as the ultimate goal of country (society).
While elements of country’s supra-structure are difficult to measure and analyze, and also matter of other sciences, the goal of this study is to predict the economic growth of Balkan countries up to 2022. Desire is to achieve as high growth and level of development as possible so that by catching up Balkan countries will narrow gap in economic development to advanced countries.
Question is what kind of strategy and policy should be applied to achieve this catching-up goal. Existed economic system and experienced economic policy measures will extrapolate the past growth rates into the future. But, if they are not enough to catch-up, system reforms and policy improvements will be required to accelerate economic growth.
Economic growth is measured by GDP as output, which is determined by production factors (of growth) as inputs. Many growth factors are given in theory and literature, all centered around capital, labor, natural resources and technology. Here, the most recent relevant common reference study[3] is used for their identification. It lists 11 principal ingredients of sustained high growth for emerging economies. They are: macroeconomic stability, openness, inbound knowledge, export diversification, capital deepening, public investment, employment and education, policy setting, energy consumption, urban density and transportation modes.[4]

[1] These elements of vision are proposed for Western Balkans in author’s 2007 book  “The Balkan Conflict and Its Solutions”, but could be extended with certain adjustments to all Balkan region, including 11countries.
[2] Related to previous article on current economic situation in Balkans  for TASAM (author, 2012) the following 11 countries are included in analysis: Turkey, Greece, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia.
[3] UN Commission on Growth and Development under Nobel Price winner Michael Spence: “The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development”, Washington DC, December 2010
[4] In addition, for advanced economies the ultimate limiting factors of economic growth are population growth and technological progress (Spence, 2012).
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Continents ( 5 Fields )
 Contents ( 405 ) Actiivities ( 172 )
Africa 65 135
Asia 75 207
Europe 13 28
Latin America & Carribean 12 30
North America 7 5
Regions ( 4 Fields )
 Contents ( 167 ) Actiivities ( 44 )
Balkans 22 92
Middle East 18 56
Black Sea and Caucasus 2 15
Mediterranean 2 4
Identity Fields ( 2 Fields )
 Contents ( 172 ) Actiivities ( 66 )
Islamic World 51 143
Turkish World 15 29
Turkey ( 1 Fields )
 Contents ( 193 ) Actiivities ( 48 )
Turkey 48 193

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