Global Spring And Forward Decade
Süleyman ŞENSOY
Süleyman ŞENSOY
TASAM Başkanı / Chairman
Release Date : 7/18/2013
Global Spring And Forward Decade

( 6th International Balkan Forum Introduction Speech, 2nd May, 2013, Edirne )

Very precious Deputy Prime Minister of ally and friend Kosovo,  Mrs. Edita Tahiri, Very precious Governor of Edirne, Very precious Mayor, Honorable Ambassadors, Journalist Friends, Estimable Academicians, Ladies and Gentlemen.

In the 6th International Balkan Forum, I’d like to share my pleasure with you because of being in Edirne all together. I want to express that our very precious governor Mr. Hasan Duruer who gives us, you and the Forum honor by holding this activity with its landlordism and cooperation, deserves the biggest gratitude and thanksgiving. I want sincerely to thank all individuals and institutions which give supports to actualize this Forum, to management of TASAM and especially coordinator of this Project Tolga Sakman.

Our basic theme is highly important for this year: “Multidimensional Local Integration, Cooperation, Vision 2023 on Balkans”. We’ll try to understand and discuss in this forum integration parameters, possible risks and opportunities on Balkans for forward decade in the cadre of competent people.

This current period has very important qualifications according to understanding Balkans better. We have been experiencing a period in which multipolar system is formed and in which global and local powers of this multipolar system have become approximately describable in forward decade.

We follow all together that settlement and establishment process of multidimensional power system initiates a sophisticated competition, that this competition has various trends and scenarios, and that this situation creates some results locally. For example, the process called as “The Arab Spring” can be evaluated as a sub-result of process can be called as “Global Spring”. We witness that this Global Spring which is based on a multidimensional sophisticated competition has three basic trends and possibly three basic scenarios. We will have opportunities to analyze possible positions of all countries at the end of forward decade according to actualization and result of all of these subjects.

The first of three basic trends in Global Spring confronts as global challenges. These stand as problems which are impossible to solve by only one country’s or local’s own. Problems which are interested in all of the world and family of humanity: we do face with global challenges which are interested in lots of basic branches such as climate changes, nuclear, chemical, biological weapons.

The second trend is; problem about giving new power candidates who develop depending on multidimensionality in international system a seat in this system or not. Whether new power candidates who are especially international institutions and organizations such as EU, The World Bank and IMF will be given a seat in these constructs, if they will, how their seats will be are really important subjects for the world. So, is it possible to pass this sharing without any discussions and wars? Or else will we find a world that has new polarization?

And the third trend, may be the most important one, is nature of government to being changed. This can be a very new concept but the world has passed various government experiences and management experiences. It has tried “Socialism”. Even if it was not in the top point, the world has tried “Communism”. It has tried “Liberalism”… And even now, it has been trying a “government capitalism” which has existence under the China. So, it is possible to say that the world system is not still over forever, in contrast it is in a research of better system, and also it has been experiencing system crises during the change of nature of government. In here, you can notice lots of meanings. There are lots of serious researches about how lots of problems such as especially prosperity, unemployment, social assurance and inter-social equality can be solved during the change of nature of government. We do face with a very new concept; “Management of Expectation”. The subject how governments manage “Management of Expectation” concept of their citizens will also be highly determinant. During limited conditions and financial problems, we, all notice that countries in which Management of Expectation can’t be managed well, go in a chaos fast and that those countries are manipulated. We confirm importance of concept of management of expectation from that all the countries in which process management experienced in Arab Spring can change or not, do not still complete this chaos process.

During the Global Spring, there are three basic scenarios depending on these three basic trends: The first scenario is; democratization of the entire world. This seems at least an imagination for the half of 21st century. So, there can be this option but its possibility is highly low.

The second scenario is; the beginning of a dissolution process both in international system and in countries around identity politics. As you know, there is three new basic parameters according to 21st century: The first; “integration” (I express this because of its relation with the subject), the second “micro nationality” and the third “unpredictability”. When we think as it is possible for this dissolution to be experienced among integrations on the side of identity politics, I’d like to underline integration, micro nationality and unpredictability are important parameters according to their disasters, chaos and troubles. I suppose a possibility about that new constructs as the same as the number of members of EU can be added into the world system and it can be confirmed as the certain reality during the forward decade. Also, we must underline that identity politics have serious risks with all the countries together because of the nature of Balkans.

And the third scenario is; how to manage the system of sources and how to share it. within all the variances. It is really important how system of sources will be managed without creating both local and multidimensional dual or multilateral discussions and chaos.

For example, at the moment, all security parameters have been worked depending on the security of water, energy and nourishment on the world.  Because in this concept, depends on the climate change and raising offer of China and India, there are lots of negative scenarios.

It seems like especially the security of water, energy and nourishment will be the most important subject in forward five decades in Asia and Africa. We do observe that countries who have global capacities have been working their possible discussion and peace scenarios depending on the security of these three basic sources. In here, we notice that how to be managed phenomenon such as religion human-resource and relationships between civil-solder as important titles in the point of management of sources of the world.

In such a global shape, we talk about Balkans and about their relationships in Balkan countries’ own locations, in the other countries of Europe and about their relationships with Turkey and with all the world. So, I know that if we take a place in such a great photograph, it will let us make healthier impressions and observations.

Without question, according to integration and domestic peace, the most important subject is economy and economic security. For example, we notice that the USA follows a new construction which can’t put terrorism threat in the first five places and it puts economic security in the first place. So, I think Balkan countries need really big initiatives cyclically in the point of providing their economic security and in the point of strengthening their domestic integration.

While we look into the candidacy process of Balkan countries which have various steps in their front and the EU process which progress fast, there is a fast extension. It is obvious that Balkan countries experience a competition difficulty with the economy and companies in Western Europe. And this difficulty creates a great transfer in Balkan’s economies. When there is a problem in the upper identity of EU, Balkans’ economies turns a very controversial situation.

So, I know that countries such as Turkey who has managed similar processes and has had similar historical experiences provides highly important opportunities in the point of strengthening economic security and economic integration in Balkan countries. In the base of economic security and integration, there must be underlined that processes of political, social, cultural and strategical integration will be more successful and in this concept, it will also be a transporter sector.

In Balkans, we do have multidimensional relationships with various countries according to religion, language, history and geography. We do care and trust moral values but we also know that it is not enough. Mental cross in the front is not only getting together around religion, language, history and geography, but also having a quality of human-resource which can create a high technology, civilization and prosperity.

This is a basic source for us to compete both in our location and out. So we learn that this human-resource should form an economy which creates high fertility and should take its qualified right from all the world cake.

In front of such a mental cross, we should express that there is a second mental cross between Turkey and Balkan countries. And it is equal with sectoral, strategical and financial deepening. This sectoral, strategical and financial deepening will strengthen the relationship strategy naturally in the base of mutual dependence.

We should foresee this strategical, sectoral and financial deepening which Balkan countries will have with Turkey in equilibriums which they have both with strong powers in their own location, and with actors out of the location, forms a very important piece of equilibrium for their own. And according to this, it is obvious that we should strengthen construction of institutional capacity and we should extend this construct which will create a mutual dependence more.

In such a perspective, I wish this 6th International Balkan Forum to create effective results for both people who participate this discussion and dialogues, and determinants. In this concept, I wish this forum to shape as a strategical support.

Tomorrow there will be held a working meeting of Network of Think-Tanks of Balkan Countries. As you know Balkan Communication Network was founded by SAM (Foreign Ministry Strategical Research Center). Approximately for 4 years, it has been keeping on by the management of TASAM. Its meetings were held in very various countries; such as Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Macedonia and Turkey… Also I’d like to underline that in forward years these meetings are open to offers of all Balkan countries and this will strengthen all of us by holding these studies in different countries.

I accept as a benefit the things which we will do in forward decade in this cadre and repeating this as a motto. In addition, I’d like to underline that the things which we will do in forward decade will determine where both Balkan countries and Turkey will stay in the remains of this century. Because we experience a historical breaking and according to both domestic peace and local/global peace how we will take our seats in this breaking depends on what we will do in forward decade! In the cadre of general concept, I wish this Forum to be successful and I give my gratitude, thanksgiving and respects to all institutions and persons who have given efforts and have supported this Forum…

 

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